In case y’all didn’t have enough to worry about —
{this is a cross-post}
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2666366/posts
Mid-East contagion fears for Saudi oil fields
The Telegraph ^ | 1/31/2011 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Posted on Monday, January 31, 2011 3:51:18 PM by bruinbirdman
Risk analysts and intelligence agencies fear that Egypt’s uprising may set off escalating protests in the tense Shia region of Saudi Arabia, home to the world’s richest oilfields.
“Yemen, Sudan, Jordan and Syria all look vulnerable. However, the greatest risk in terms of both probability and severity is in Saudi Arabia,” said a report by risk consultants Exclusive Analysis.
While markets have focused on possible disruption to the Suez Canal, conduit for 8pc of global shipping, it is unlikely that Egyptian leaders of any stripe would cut off an income stream worth $5bn (£3.1bn) a year to the Egyptian state.
“I don’t think the Egyptians will ever dare to touch it,” said Opec chief Abdalla El-Badri, adding that the separate Suez oil pipeline is “very well protected”. The canal was blockaded after the Six Days War in 1967.
There has been less focus on the risk of instability spreading to Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, headquarters of the Saudi oil giant Aramco. The region boasts the vast Safaniya, Shaybah and Ghawar oilfields. “This is potentially far more dangerous,” said Faysal Itani, Mid-East strategist at Exclusive.
“The Shia are 10pc of the Saudi population. They are deeply aggrieved and marginalised, and sit on top of the kingdom’s oil reserves. There have been frequent confrontations and street fights with the security forces that are very rarely reported in the media,” he said.
The Saudi Shia last rose up in mass civil disobedience in the “Intifada” of 1979, inspired by the Khomeini revolution in Iran. Clashes led to 21 deaths. Mr Itani said it is unclear whether the Saudi military could cope with a serious outbreak of protest in the province.
Saudi King Abdullah is clearly alarmed by fast-moving events in Egypt and the Arab world. In a statement published by
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Oh man Ike, that’s a sobering take.
I was watching CNN for a bit and found even they are having a hard time coming down solidly for the demonstrators. Blitzer did a couple of interviews with analyists who presented differing views- it was, pardon the expression, fair and balanced ;)
Believe it or not- some people in Egypt are not in favor of the demonstrations- though you’d never know it from the coverage. Some gal reporter interviewed a group of people who said they think there should be changes- but not like this- older woman said if Mubarak goes, what is he replaced with- demonstrating youths from the streets?
At any rate- it was amazing to see CNN actually found some opposing views to show us.
Oh- and Pvt Manning of Wikileaks infamy is taking credit for the revolt in Egypt!!!!!