“I had this debate with the abiogenesis believers (before most of them got banned) several years back. They have trouble accepting the scientific facts that show that the probability of necessary molecules forming by chance is something on the order of 1 in 10^210. Then those molecules have to survive the whole process. Most scientists use 1 in 100 to represent this figure, which is off by more than 200 orders of magnitude. That’s like saying the primary cause of elephants dying is due to kinetic energy of mosquitoes hitting them.”
In my opinion, which really doesn’t count for much, for abiogenesis to even be possible would require that “life” is an “intrinsic” property of matter. Meaning that the elements, especially Carbon, Oxygen, etc. would have to have properties that would always cause them to form into “life” whenever the circumstances (temp, pressure, etc.) allowed it (i.e. like water always forms ice when at 1 atmoshere and 0 degrees celcius). Personally, I think this idea to be silly, and I have never seen anyone directly claim to adhere to it. However, they must believe it on some level because they keep speculating that life will be found in some pretty strange places. Call it the “Intrinsic Property of Matter” postulate that no one has openly postulated. To overcome the statistical improbability, an “instrinsic” property to form life would be needed.
Whatever, the scientist in this case is the Jewish equivalent of a Christian theistic evolutionist.
The problem with said analysis is that it’s not observed. One could infer the probability of many reactions occuring as impossible without the understanding of catalysts.
Same, even with the Sun, and the nuclear fusion in the core. We have to understand quantum tunnelling with the photons just to explain how the Sun can heat itself for billions of years, which is observed. Again, thermodynamics would suggest that this was in fact impossible.
Until we actually observe the raw chemical elements and their synthesis into amino acids, all hypothesis on the probability of such an event is conjectural. We don’t even understand precisely how they are put together. We are just now getting an inkling into the workings of the most simplest organisms and what their DNA coding means, let alone figuring out how it’s all put together.
And even then, we are simply co-opting existing genetic material and converting it into something else. We aren’t taking the raw chemical elements and combining them.