>> “If, say, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Pence fracture the Tea Party votes...” <<
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Since when did establishment elitists like Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Pence qualify as TEA party candidates?
Those guys will take votes from Romney, not Palin.
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I wouldn’t say that Mike Pence is an establishment elitist.