Posted on 01/22/2011 3:24:26 AM PST by Scanian
With Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington, there's a lot of talk about the rise of China as an economic and military power. But the Chinese may have only a small window in time to assert global dominance -- and Chinese leaders have to know it. China is, perhaps, twenty years from the start of a demographic implosion, one that will cause enormous internal strains, economically and socially.
Could awareness of the hard demographic realities that lie ahead for China drive the Chinese to advance their interests militarily, if need be, before China is hampered by an aging population? Will the Chinese military, alarmed by the coming demographic crisis, push its nation to imperialism, similar to that inflicted on Asia-Pacific by the Japanese through World War II?
An increasingly assertive Chinese military may be providing the answer. Chinese leaders -- party and military -- may well appreciate that China needs to secure its position as a great power before tackling the huge challenges of a graying population.
The root of China's coming demographic crisis is the nation's longstanding one-child policy; that policy has markedly skewed the Chinese population older. Not far off, many more old people and fewer young people mean greater strains on China.
Neil Howe and Richard Jackson, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in the Washington Post about China's demographic plight:
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
This prediction seems to overlook some salient points.
The Chinese government is not broke so they are not starting in a hole and they have not borrowed from their Social Security System.
About individuals, the Chinese standard of living, while rising, has not yet softened the memories of hard times spent doing without. Like people in the U.S. that lived through the Great Depression, they seem to get along with less.
There is a strong societal tendency of Chinese people to maintain savings for their old age. In the very poor regions, this may be less so but they are living a life much like those when nobody looked to the government in old age.
The one child policy is being relaxed. Not sure how widespread that policy is. My understanding is that those of the means to provide for a second child without it being a burden on the state can have a second child. I'll be happy to stand corrected if someone has different information on that. Mine is purely anecdotal.
That said, there is certainly a demographic problem with far fewer young adults to care for aging ones in the coming years. That is not a problem unlike in the U.S. except that they and their government are not up to their necks in debt and without savings.
I did not take time to read the entire article, only what was posted. Perhaps its author covered these points. If not, then it is not a credible work. Either way, it would seem to me a whole lot more worthwhile to worry about our demographic problem than theirs.
Not to worry...the Chinese (with their disregard for the sanctity of human life) can follow their history. The solution lies in killing the elderly. Problem solved.
The Communist Chinese “one child policy” will catch up with them, eventually.
They will have fewer people, which means fewer workers....and wages will go up as the supply and demand of labor is affected. Shipping jobs out of America and other countries to Communist China will no longer be cost-effective because of fewer ChiCom workers and higher wages.
Unless Free Traders finangle some way to warp the laws of economics (lets hope not for America’s sake)....in about 10 to 20 years....Communist China will no longer be cost-effective for the multi-nationals.
Communist China will suffer a similar fate as 14th Century Europe did after the Black Death (bubonic plague).....when massive population loss caused the cost of labor to skyrocket...changing the enitre economic structure.
It would be nice if all the muzzies who are plaguing Europe (and have future plans for us) would go to China to work instead. But at an average wage of two bucks and hour there isn’t much chance of that.
Prediction: they'll solve the problem by killing the useless oldsters.
It's catching up with them already, but not in the way one might think. The preference for boys, which will support them in there old age has caused a screwing of the male to female ratio of China's population. And has lead to many of the young men in China to be unable to find wives, that's something that will be hard to fix even with lots of money. this screwing will lead to a even greater drop in population numbers, but it will also create a gaint pool of fustrated young men and whats the easiest way to reduce the pool of young men?
Why should they even consider it? They flood into the UK and Europe, bring all their wives, and breed like vermin, and are given Free Everything by the governments.
Just wishful thinking.
The Chicoms wouldn’t want any part of them even if they had to use school kids in their factories.
They could use them as a low cost Cat Substitute in their restaurants.
Uggh!
You just changed my lunch plans!
I thought we had a winner idea for China's first Halal restaurant. O well.
RE: The solution lies in killing the elderly. Problem solved.
Filial Piety is and has always been an ESSENTIAL part of Chinese culture. Every ethical teacher from Confucius to his disciples downwards in Chinese history have taught that care for your elderly parents is the height of virtue.
I don’t know where you’re getting the above idea about the Chinese from...
Seems we have the same history. Except for the age difference, we have been killing millions of our citizens before they ever made it out of the womb.
I can imagine that if we ever become a burden on those generations that managed to survive, we are going to have a hard time making the case we should not also be eliminated because we are not wanted.
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