This article was forwarded to me yesterday by another lumber trader I work with. All of us called BS on in.
However, starts are going up from the low of 500,000 but nobody believes we will hit 1.5 million by 2013. I think the 700m # for this year is possible.
Most people do not understand that houses on the average need to be replaced every 75 years. With 300 million people, most economists will state that we need to build 1-1.2 million just to keep up with population growth.
Starts peaked in 2005 at 2.2 million. They bottomed out at 500,000. It is going to take awhile to get back to 1 million.
I posted this article because I like to get the reaction of the people on this board. The reactions were exatly what I thought. The fact is the most people judge the economy based on their own personal experience. It happens in my industry all the time. Just because things are slow in AZ has little to do with things in TX.
IN the age of self selecting news consumption, what else can you expect? Got to agree with you on that.
Otherwise, I’m certain 5+ unit multi-unit housing will be bullish as early as 3Q 2011, pent up demand side of the equation for new households is going to bring back rental market almost across the board,
That being said, the report you posted in the original article was all politics, all the time...
Today’s news:
From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Fannie-Freddie Report Likely to Be Late
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704115404576096301759391950.html
The administration now plans to release the report by mid-February ... once a final report is released it is likely to contain two or three proposals for what should replace Fannie and Freddie ...
One of the proposals will outline a way for the government to continue backing certain mortgage-backed securities, while another will discuss how to structure a market with no government guarantees. ... any transition period could take between 15 and 20 years, according to Barclays.