I am 35, and only recently have been able to even contemplate buying a home. i work for myself, small business, etc etc.
The last thing on my mind is some gaudy McMansion in a subdivision that idiot boomers overpaid for and now is taxed to the hilt.
No thanks.
It was not the boomers that overpaid. Many sold into the bubble. It was the one's in the mid-30's that overpaid into the Mcmansions.
I'm in a similar position as you. I am just a couple years old, and my wife and I bought our home "in the burbs" about 7 years ago with young kids, and after many years as escapees from the "big city." I live in NY State, so an average $200,000 house will cost at least $600 per month in property taxes, probably more. I could probably have afforded more house, but absolutely NO WAY I would consider or afford the taxes on a larger house, considering that these can easily reach $20,000 per year on a larger home. Conclusion - I think Gen Y'ers will revolt when they find out their ridiculously high property taxes are going to pay for their parents' generations' state-employee health and pension costs. Doesn't bode well for all those big McMansions on the market.
I felt that way for a good bit, too. Why would I want a huge house to clean, take care of, etc etc etc etc.
Then, I started house shopping. What I *really* wanted was a decent-sized (read, big enough for 2 kid family) place, on a large parcel (few acres) of land. I wanted it in a good school district, and I didn't want the upkeep of a 100-year-old farmhouse...so something moderately new.
Places like that, in my area at least, are about like unicorns. They don't exist. Or if they do exist, someone already owns it. If they were selling, it was so ridiculously out of my price range that I didn't even bother asking.
So...... instead of less house on more land, I wound up with more house on less land. I'm not sure if you'd call it a "McMansion", but the place is pretty good sized. So far (a year or so into it) I still love the place. Nice to have a workshop, office, playspace for the kids, etc. And it's in a nice rural/suburban school district, with parks, baseball fields, etc etc close enough to walk (or more important) ride a bike to.
I dunno, after growing up waaaaaay out in the sticks, I never saw myself as a suburbanite slob, but, geez, it's easy and it works. It took some homework to find a place that I'd fit in - for instance, there's no HOA where I live, and taxes are 1/2 what I was previously paying for a house "in the city". But, with some looking, it can work OK.
And the fact that no one else wants one right now, really put me in the driver's seat when it came to negotiations. I almost felt guilty, as the former owners were so compliant with pricing, etc.
This is exactly what my grown up children (in their 20s & 30s) say.
My spouse and I are Boomers, but we never bought into the whole suburban subdivision thing either.
Thank goodness we didn't, because McMansionvilles are destined to be the slums of the future. Already some towns are locating "section 8" so-called families in vacant, foreclosed McMansions.
So while some snarky comments above might be true --that Gen Yers will change their minds when they have children-- it still does not follow that they will suddenly find McMansions desirable.
No, the hottest real estate for Gen Yers, once they have children, will probably be where I live now:
They will want a moderately-sized older house on a moderately-sized lot (mine is 60' x 120') in a safe, "walkable," mixed use neighborhood that has parks and green spaces, and is not too far from Gen Yer's jobs.
The fact that public schools in these areas might not be "good" won't matter much to Gen Yers, because they will come to realize that NO public schools are good anymore. Including those that serve McMansionvilles.
Unlike Boomers --whose primary assumption in picking a location for their homes was that certain public schools, in certain areas, could provide a substantial boost to their childrens' success-- Gen Yers will assume that no matter where they live, the only decent choices for their children will be private schools (or homeschooling).