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Tokyo is less enthusiastic about the F-35 than it was about the F-22 and is still hoping that something will come along and change the equation. China may have done that with the recent J-20 photos and tests, but it’s too early to say for sure.

That is not to say that the F-35 does not have its own fans in the JSDF, especially in the JMSDF who see the STOVL version as a possible back-door addition to its new helicopter carriers and thus giving Japan a power projection capability it has lacked since the war.

But with the STOVL version on double secret probation and the entire F-35 program seemingly costing more and proving less capable with every news-cycle, they might be tempted to an interim upgrade while they continue to push for an export version of the Raptor.

Of those possibilities, I think the F-15SE, which is already under consideration for export to the ROK might be a good choice. For one thing, it has the potential to give the ROK and Japan an opening for increased interoperability, which would be nice given the current trend towards closer defense ties, and for another Japan has operated F-15s for many years, so the basic bird is well known.