North Korea can set their watches to it, for petes sake.
While Gates’ comments are disheartening, I don’t think all is lost just yet. A couple comments from the One Free Korea blog that ring true with me:
Another thing worth pointing out is that a subtle difference of opinion is emerging between South Korea and the US, something that the North will likely be keen to take advantage of.
During Gates’ meeting with Kim Gwan-jin today, both sides stressed that the Six-Party Talks can only resume when South-North dialogue begins and when the North demonstrates that it is willing to negotiate in good faith, but Gates said nothing about South Korea’s preconditions for South-North talks which include the North taking responsibility for the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island attacks, ceasing all further provocations, and demonstrating their sincerity towards denuclearization. Gates, on the other hand, said that the North need only formally swear off provocations and the much more nebulous “fulfill its international obligations.”
The North could exploit this difference easily. The North could butter up to the US easily by taking superficial measures that feign sincerity towards denuclearization, perhaps by calling up the IAEA and formally inviting inspectors back to Yeonpyeong or rejoining the NPT. Then the dialogue fetishists in Washington will get the Obama administration to pressure the South to drop its own preconditions allowing the North to get away scot-free with two unprovoked attacks while wrangling Seoul into providing generous economic assistance and clearing a path to the even more lucrative Six-Party Revolving Door Talks.
The US government should reaffirm our commitment to our ally by publically supporting the South’s preconditions.
On the other hand couldn’t we say that by making North-South dialogue a precondition for 6-partys, Gates is effectively endorsing — “baking in” — the South’s preconditions on the Cheonnan and Yeonpyong?
While I can’t stand Chris Hill (may feces be upon him), he probably has better intel available to him than we do. If he is saying there is a succession crisis, then there may very well be -
Fmr. US envoy to 6-party talks, Chris Hill, says “succession crisis” in #DPRK & it’ll be very difficult for KJU to take reigns of power.
about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
Fmr. Amb. Hill made the remark in a speech this afternoon in Seoul.
about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck