Haley Barbour, in a discussion last week on FR, had those IDing him as a rino with either pro-choice or pro-gay items that will haunt him. Don’t remember which.
Michelle Bachman is a congresswoman, and, as marlowe points out, the last (and only) person to go from the House to the White House was James Garfield. Different story if she runs for governor or senator, but even then, she wouldn’t be ripe for 2012.
I don’t have a line on Mitch Daniels.
Gov Palin has a huge base (and database) now, and if money and organization are the lubricants of victory, then she can win.
My money, though, is on Rick Perry. He’s solid social and fiscal conservative, he’ll have 38 electoral votes in his pocket from his own state, has a base, an organization, experience both nationally and internationally, and will pull the entire south and most of the southwest with him.
If those states + the few red-leaning go with him, he’s an automatic 300 electoral votes = victory.
Your math sounds good to me.