Skip to comments.N. Korea: When Force Works
Posted on 01/07/2011 4:16:08 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
When Force Works
By Michael Mazza Friday, January 7, 2011
The latest developments on the Korean peninsula suggest that Seouls new, more forceful posturing has been effective, and that the North is desperate for a reprieve from South Korean pressure.
South Korea has finally succeeded in putting North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il back on his heels. The latest developments on the Korean peninsula suggest that Seouls new, more forceful posturing has been effective, and that the North is desperate for a reprieve from South Korean pressure.
Pyongyangs response to the December 20 South Korean live-fire artillery exercise on Yeonpyeong Island provides reason for hope. While the North had threatened to retaliate to such exercises with an attack that would be deadlier than what was made on November 23 in terms of the powerfulness and sphere of the strike, bluster gave way to a whimper. There were no brutal consequences beyond imagination. Instead, the North issued a statement claiming that it did not feel any need to retaliate and asserting that the world should properly know who is the true champion of peace and who is the real provocateur of a war.
The new turn in South Koreas strategy towards the North surely had much to do with the Norths failure to retaliate as threatened. The South is standing up for itself in a way it has not done in years. The Seoul leaderships rhetoric has been strong and without nuance. On November 29, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak assured that, in response to future attacks by North Korea, We will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail. On December 3, the new South Korean defense minister promised at his confirmation hearing that if there are further provocations, we will definitely use aircraft to bomb North Korea.
(Excerpt) Read more at american.com ...
It worked on the playground, when we were 10-years-old, who knows, it might work for adults too?
Message to the weakling in our White House.
Stop grovelling, start standing up for America.
I was actually behind Obama’s initial response and backing of the ROK. But sending in Stephen Bosworth??? Almost seems like a full reversal of policy.
Be tough for a month, then go running back to the negotiating table??
The only ones which can prevent this circus from taking life of its own are outraged S. Korea public and firm U.S. Congress.
If Lee, the ROK .gov, ROK public and US Congress stand firm and don’t cave to talks without verifiable action being taken by the DPRK, what kind of response do you think we will see from the DPRK??
No talks, no aid = another DPRK provocation within the next few months?
It will come anyway. Even if 6-party talks resumes, you don't think NK would get a blank check at 6-party talks. If that is the case, NK will push its case with another provocation.
the 3rd nuke test or another military attack. However, another attack would only further aggravate hostility shown by S. Korean public.
This will constrain the maneuvering room by ROK government and by extension, that of U.S. and China. Especially China. ROK government may play a sheep but S. Koreans would not. Anymore "arrogance" from China or violence from N. Korea would lead to some right-wing group to openly press for nuclear S. Korea.
I sensed some sign that SK gov conveyed to such a group that things are moving along and they should give gov some breathing room, because suddenly this group toned down their rhetoric. However, if they feel that gov is caving to N. Korea or China again, the situation would boil again. Lee would be in another domestic political crisis.
There are winners and losers on political scene in S. Korea depending how this N. Korea thing shapes up. Some want the situation to calm down even if they have to bribe NK again for no real benefit in return, because crisis mood would hurt their political chance, while others see it as their chance to seize the momentum.
If NK escalates provocation, there will be no middle in SK political scene. It would be the life-or-death struggle between the political right and the left. Those who want to chart the centrist course will be suddenly pushed aside, and wild card figure will catapult into the political scene in 2012 Presidential Election.
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