Posted on 01/02/2011 9:18:32 AM PST by Jeff Head
My 2011 Update regarding the Red Chinese Navy.
I sure hope our navy is keeping up with anti-missile defenses as I fear our ships could be easily overwhelmed.
But I suppose that foreign guy would like to see our ships as fish shelters.
we are still well ahead technologically. The AEGIS destroyers now number 62, with 22 AEGIS cruisers, so our missile defense is very, very strong. Still, we are scattered all over the world, though our Pacific Fleet is by far our largest. The Chinese are building a very modern and capable fleet. There is only one force they simply will have to counter...us. Though the Japanese are no push over by any stretch and at the current time could probably go toe to toe with the Chinese. But that is changing.
S. Korea and Japan are starting to cooperate despite deep distrust on the part of the S. Koreans. As China gets stronger, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines may join creating a ring around much of China. At some point I can see Korea, (a united Korea) Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and India forming some sort of an economic union and a security pack with the US to contain China.
The Chinese, historically have never been effective at sea although they are obviously trying.
What they have been good at historically is land based operations. Remember they got all of the way to middle Europe on their last big run.
Valdimir Putin has to think of thousands of miles of land, resources of every type in mostly very lightly populated territory to defend.
If that does not keep him awake at night, he is a fool.
Wake me when they start producing the equivalent of the American Bluejacket, CPO, JP Jones type officers, and Naval aviators.....till then they can knock themselves building target practice barges.
Thanks Jeff, for keeping us informed on this incredible menace.
(I’m sure that Obama can handle this)
Happy New Year Jeff, keep up the good work.
Look at what you are saying here, you are making a "toe to toe" comparison with China and Japan. Step back and try and be as impartial as you can about China.
China is a nation of 1.4 billion people and Japan is 125 million. You make it sound as if its a tragedy that China, with over 10 times the population of Japan, is finally tipping the balance of power in her favor.
But really, the trajedy, from a Chinese perspective, began way back in the 1890's when Japan (a much smaller nation), won the Sino-Japanese war, established herself as the key power in Asia. Not China. This really, from a Chinese perspective, is one of the great trajedies of modern times.
And this trajedy was further driven home, by the fact, that by the 1940's, a nation of 80 million (Japan), was able to overrun a nation of 480 million (China).
Japan and China, for the last 150 years have always been referred to as the "Asian powers". In reality, throughout the melenium, there was really only one.
The fact that China and Japan are reaching a tipping point, today, shows that China is merely catching up with the industrialized world (or getting closer, anyway) and one that is commensurate with her size.
And while the West mourn the shrinking of the British Navy, Britain is replacing two of her aircraft carriers with two modern carriers. If you take population in account, that would be like China building 45 carriers. But China has no where near that ambition or that capability.
The reason why people on the FR become alarmist about China's military build up, is because they are trying to fit a mid-sized European country and expectation onto China. When in reality, China is larger than Europe and North America combined.
Irrespective of size, the reasons to be concerned about China’s modernization and buildup or simply as follows:
1) They are a communist nation and adhere to that ideology politically...totalitarian, one party rule.
2) They have overcome and discarded the failed Lennist/Maoist economic model in favor of a world market model that is more fascist in nauter and very nationalistic...and very pwoerful (even if, like us, they have their weaknesses).
When you couple these two, you have the potential for instability and conflict in the region as China with her own ambitions bumps up against democratic republics and something closer to the free market.
GErmany was a veyr small country population wise...but they had similar poitical and economic flavors and it took most of the world to put her down when they went rogue.
China is catching up, and she has the potential to jump ahead if we in the west do not stay on our toes.
>>> China is catching up, and she has the potential to jump ahead if we in the west do not stay on our toes.
As our FRiend, Quidam, use to say, “this is the dawn of the Pacific age.”
China is still a developing nation that needs to build things and build them quickly without being hampered with public hearings, environmental challenges, etc. Road, bridges, airports, etc. are all needed. So, ironically, while many in China aren't particularly fond of a one party rule, they know that in this period, it is necessary.
In regards to China's current economic model as being more facist, I agree that its a bit more desparate, but not facist. China's foreign policy, is driven almost entirely by her need for mineral and energy resources. Contrary to popular belief on the FR, when China is buddying up to the world unconditionally, she isn't trying to curry favor to leverage against Taiwan or the US. But rather, to gain access to energy. And of course, moving up the value chain to help pay for these resources.
In this regard, this may seem nationalistic or facist to you. But in reality, is it more of a desparation on the part of China. China surpassed the US in 2009 in total energy consumption. While current estimates put China's energy consumption to be 75% greater than 2009 by 2030, I personally believe it is under estimating China's future energy demand. Personally, I believe it will be 100+% more by 2025 (more than twice 2009 needs). If my projections are true, and they typically have been, China will basically need to find an annual equivalent of more than what the US consume in energy today by 2025.
I do believe it is rather egotistic to think that China wants to undermine US or Western influence as she looks to the world for resources and guard them.
Also, keep in mind, alot of those resources will come from Canada, Australia and even the US. Being the source of such resources provide significant leverage to these three countries, not to mention Russia and Brazil. Google the following: "China, US coal exports, Powder River Basin". You'll see that the US will be a growing exporter of coal to China. This ultimately is China's goal. You can have the role of world's policeman. China doesn't want it.
As I've said before, I personally believe there will come a day when Americans will resent China's lack of military involvement in global affairs while China benefits from the global trading system.
Sorry, I do not buy that a one party, totalitarian rule is ever “good”. Certainly it can be efficient...the Germans proved that with what they accomplished. I just hope it stays contained until the Chinese people demand and get a more republican process in place in their nation.
There is ample room for concern, but I believe that the western nations will retain and maintain enough of a combined advantage to forestall any adventurism...at least I hope so.
As it is, I have tracked it for years and what the PLAN is doing is phenominal, one of the largest, most rapid naval modernization and buildup programs since before World War II. In fact, there is a naval arms race going on in the western pacific as a result with Japan, S. Korea, Australia, Taowan...and of course, the US all building more and faster than they had planned to ensure that things do not get out of hand.
Time will tell...but I am willing to say that the Chinese will have a full-deck carrier (STOBAR) in the refitted Varyag (probably christened the Shi Lang) at Sea probably this year and they will begin conducting trials with a fairly decent carrier strike group (which they will take years getting proficient at) and that they will add another two of their own design by 2020, with very modern and capable vessels to escort them.
Japan will respond with her two new VTOL carriers following up on the Hyuga class, the Australians will put their two to sea, the Koreans will build one or two more Dokdos, and the US will get its first and second ford class (CVN-78) to sea in the same time frame.
By 2020, the US will also be testing directed energy weapon CIWS for anti-missile defense...the new reactors on the Ford class are that powerful that they will have the electrical power to make it happen I believe.
Interesting about the directed energy weapon for CIWS. I hadn't heard about that on a ship. I am only familar with the Boeing 747 chemical laser.
It must still require alot of energy as you have said it will be used on the FORD class carriers. I'm assuming the reactors will be much more powerful than the Nimitz class carriers, though that information (output of the reactors), I'm sure, is classified.
The new A1B reactors will produce about 300% the power of the current A4W reactors on the Nimitz class. Nothing classified about those numbers. On a number of issues, the US is very open about most of these things, wants to be sure potential adversaries see the futility.
Sort of like what happened with Russia...catch us if you can.
The High-Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System (Hellads), is a US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program set to produce refridgerator sized 150 Kilowatt lasers perhaps as early as 2013.
When I look at the historical launch schedule for the Nimitz class carriers, it appears one have been launched and commisioned about every 4 years since the first one. The Ford class is expected to come on line every 5 years, there abouts, and do a one for one replacement starting with the Enterprise.
I have to say, I do find it difficult to phantom that the US will be able to do a one for one replacement every 5 years given the fiscal problems that are occuring and the huge national debt. There are currently only 3 Ford carriers scheduled to be built. I assume that it'll depend on the commitment of future military budgets.
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