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Peter Schiff: Housing still has at least 20% on downside to go.
Business Insider ^ | December 30, 2010 | Gregory White

Posted on 12/30/2010 1:16:40 PM PST by GlockThe Vote

Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More Gregory White | Dec. 30, 2010, 12:09 PM | 6,520 | 25

House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we're in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we're actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff (in the WSJ, emphasis ours):

With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-schiff-home-prices-2010-12#ixzz19dBDDWwY

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: housingbubble; peterschiff
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To: GlockThe Vote
Prices are going to going down across the board. As they are forced to raise interest rates and local taxes skyrocket, the value of the home will go lower and lower and be seen as more an albatross than anything else.

And what did you mean when you posted "Head in the sand"? Did you mean some people or were you directing that to me?

61 posted on 12/30/2010 3:29:20 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: lurk
"The Rocky Mtn states, for instance, continue to have a growing population that puts an upward demand on housing units."

In Colorado, the demand for rentals is way up, while the demand for purchases is way down. Foreclosures are high, and there's much suspicion that devaluations aren't being done honestly (local governments trying to keep property taxes up).


62 posted on 12/30/2010 3:33:12 PM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: 4rcane
He overestimate the intelligence of Chinese politicians imho.

The Chinese still have most of their population living on the farm. You can't fail if you are a rice farmer. You can't fall any lower.

In the US, most people live in huge cities and do little or nothing directly related to the production of a product of any kind.

They (we) have a LONG WAY TO FALL...

Parasites are the first to die when the host falls seriously ill. Passive income parasites are no different.

there are makers, takers, and fakers. The US seems a country of fakers run by a mob of takers.

63 posted on 12/30/2010 3:33:49 PM PST by Huebolt (It's not over until there is not ONE DEMOCRAT HOLDING OFFICE ANYWHERE. Not even a dog catcher!)
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To: GlockThe Vote
Ha ha ha ha - no kidding - thisis why people are fleeing N.Y. and myself included as soon as I can.

Over 1.5 million fled between 2000 and 2008. Can't find the figures for the last 2 years..

64 posted on 12/30/2010 3:36:52 PM PST by EVO X
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To: forgotten man
Has Schiff ever been wrong?

Ask his clients. The dude is always apologizing for losing their money.

65 posted on 12/30/2010 3:38:08 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: GlockThe Vote

Average median home price historically adjusted for inflation is 100k...we are still about 170-180k average...has to drop below 100k before rising to equalize at the historical average...watching this metric is key it will be the best indicator on when to buy!

There will be huge opportunities for those that are patient and watch the market closely.


66 posted on 12/30/2010 3:39:12 PM PST by surfer (To err is human, to really foul things up takes a Democrat, don't expect the GOP to have the answer!)
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To: Las Vegas Ron
He has been amazingly accurate...but there will be some here who think they know better.

Like when he predicted a five year bear market in 2002? Like when he apologized to his clients in 2008 for 'accounts that suffered badly'?

67 posted on 12/30/2010 3:40:56 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: SeeSac

General media “consensus”.


68 posted on 12/30/2010 3:42:20 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Huebolt

Great post.


69 posted on 12/30/2010 3:47:50 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: SeeSac

I don’t feed trolls.


70 posted on 12/30/2010 4:00:22 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (The Tree of Liberty did not grow from an ACORN!)
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To: GlockThe Vote
"I have been telling my GF that prices are still 20 - 40% too high based on historical criteria, and she used to yell at me for not buying, but no longer."

I thought of this article when Iread your comment:

My Friends And I Are THRILLED About Falling Housing Prices

71 posted on 12/30/2010 4:07:43 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

Problem is that my small biz is way down too w bama’s economy so falling prices will only be good if my income recovers.


72 posted on 12/30/2010 4:12:55 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Zakeet
"Rerun the numbers as many times as you like and you will discover that default is inevitable."

I agree. There's no peaceful way back from here.

Krugman agrees:

Krugman: We're Going To Have To Default On Our Debt One Way Or Another

73 posted on 12/30/2010 4:19:03 PM PST by blam
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To: Lazlo in PA

It isn’t like everyone who ever studied the Austrian economists didn’t warn you all what was coming and why.

I talked my father inlaw out of the real estate business in 2002.


74 posted on 12/30/2010 4:20:35 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.8)
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To: Zakeet
"Based on the experience of other countries who have undergone similar economic circumstances, housing prices will fall 90 percent or more in real terms when we begin to experience more of the effects of serious inflation / hyperinflation.

Now Get Ready For A 90% Collapse In Canadian Real Estate

75 posted on 12/30/2010 4:23:35 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

We have had a ponzi-madoff economy for too long now.


76 posted on 12/30/2010 4:42:48 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: MrEdd

You talked him out in ‘02? Boy, family functions must suck. You talked him out at the beginning of one of the biggest booms ever in real estate since the late 40’s early 50’s. If

I were him I would be an angry camper. All that lost wealth.


77 posted on 12/30/2010 4:46:30 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: 4rcane
"He overestimate the intelligence of Chinese politicians imho. I don’t see them any different to US politicians. Both of them think devaluing currency is the way of prosperity. Peter constantly think that Chinese politicians will wake up one day and realize their error. I don’t see that happening. I see hyperinflation happening in China before the US.

Chinese Pro-Democracy Activist Explains How Inflation Will Cause The Collapse Of The Regime

"Everyone recognizes the economic dangers of inflation in China."

But the black swan in the room is regime change.

78 posted on 12/30/2010 5:03:30 PM PST by blam
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To: Lazlo in PA
I were him I would be an angry camper. All that lost wealth.

I have a buddy here in Vegas that I rent a house from.

He bought it in 1999 for cash, it is now worth 40-50k less than what he paid for it.

You might want to re think your post.....just sayin.

Now if you sold at the right time, that would be a whole different scenario.

79 posted on 12/30/2010 5:13:46 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (The Tree of Liberty did not grow from an ACORN!)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Bump for when I need a dose of reality


80 posted on 12/30/2010 5:20:32 PM PST by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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