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Peter Schiff: Housing still has at least 20% on downside to go.
Business Insider ^ | December 30, 2010 | Gregory White

Posted on 12/30/2010 1:16:40 PM PST by GlockThe Vote

Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More Gregory White | Dec. 30, 2010, 12:09 PM | 6,520 | 25

House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we're in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we're actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff (in the WSJ, emphasis ours):

With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-schiff-home-prices-2010-12#ixzz19dBDDWwY

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: housingbubble; peterschiff
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To: GlockThe Vote
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

His analysis is too simple. It would be more appropriate to see regional numbers. Plus, houses now are not the same as houses 100 years ago or even twenty years ago.

41 posted on 12/30/2010 2:43:42 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: SeeSac

Head in the sand.


42 posted on 12/30/2010 2:46:53 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: SeeSac

Show me a video remotely as accurate as this as Peter has been:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZaHNeNgrcI

NOTICE THE MORONS ON FOX NEWS LAUGHING AT HIM!


43 posted on 12/30/2010 2:48:10 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Housing will be down in some regions, flat or going up in others.

The Rocky Mtn states, for instance, continue to have a growing population that puts an upward demand on housing units.


44 posted on 12/30/2010 2:50:58 PM PST by lurk
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To: Las Vegas Ron

Until someone can show me another person even 50% as accurate as Schiff will take his advice over the hacks attacking him.


45 posted on 12/30/2010 2:50:58 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: lurk

I disagree. Demographics, inflation, taxes, carrying costs, young people saddled wth debt, etc is going to keep houisng in the toilet for decades.


46 posted on 12/30/2010 2:52:28 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: GlockThe Vote
Head in the sand.

?????????????????????????????????

47 posted on 12/30/2010 2:53:02 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: Paul Ross
"And of course the AP and Fox News (who are infiltrated by a number of liberals) reported this morning on the their radio how the housing market had upward signs with sales and increased interest rates."

Yes. One local real estate company (Colorado ski resort area) advertises that the rising interest rates signal a "housing" recovery and the time to buy. It sounds like a car dealer ad. Meanwhile, their are many legals pages in the local papers (foreclosures), and the market is flat except for the rare cash sales.

The survivalism market may be more active than real estate.

Intelligent Investing Panel
Going Great Guns
Forbes
David Serchuk, 04.23.09
"Thomas:...But, you know, you could always find another job that would pay all right, and pay slightly above minimum wage, could allow you to at least live and have a home in most communities. And I think that's slowly changed."
[...]
"Forbes: I was in Colorado, and I knew people who had 200, 300 guns. And they'd stash them in various hidden places around their compound. This wasn't all that uncommon out west."
[...]
"Sonders:...we have gone from a couple decades ago being a manufacturing economy to more of a service-oriented, information economy. That has just displaced permanently a lot of workers,..."


48 posted on 12/30/2010 2:55:12 PM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Ditto that.

He has been amazingly accurate...but there will be some here who think they know better.


49 posted on 12/30/2010 2:57:50 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (The Tree of Liberty did not grow from an ACORN!)
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To: SeeSac

Prices are going to going down across the board. As they are forced to raise interest rates and local taxes skyrocket, the value of the home will go lower and lower and be seen as more an albatross than anything else.

And who do we have to thank for this? Fed Reserve and the Fed/State/city govt.


50 posted on 12/30/2010 2:59:05 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Las Vegas Ron

That video is why i refuse to watch Fox News by and large. Its mostly nonsense when you can get the truth easily by people like Schiff/Celente/Chapman etc via youtube vids, podcasts, newsletters etc.

Schiff/Celente called gold and silver to the tee as well.

Its not fun hearing such pessimistic views, but the reality is what it is.


51 posted on 12/30/2010 3:02:17 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Las Vegas Ron; GlockThe Vote
Yikes, I’d hate to see his pessimistic views.

Those are my views and not Schiff's.

As noted in the response, I base them on actual events reported by economic historians, rather that forecasts prepared by academicians and government bureaucrats.

If you want to think about something really terrifying, try to amortize our national debt. All of the premises you need can be found here: U.S. Debt Clock.

OK, so it can't happen under current conditions. But maybe we can still avert disaster if we slash government spending enough. Start by eliminating the 40 percent or so we borrow. Then raise interest rates to a more reasonable level from those resulting from printed money (with another $140 billion or so in spending cuts required for every percentage point they're hiked). Try not to think of Greece in the process. Think you can cut another trillion or two or three from spending to make ends meet?

So how about doing away with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Food Stamps and Civil Servant Pensions. Is that enough, even if it were remotely politically possible?

Rerun the numbers as many times as you like and you will discover that default is inevitable. What does that mean?

For an answer, go back to the economic history text books and look at what happens to countries that default on their obligations.

Hint: think South American type hyperinflation if we default on the external debt only (i.e. debt held by foreigners), and Zimbabwe type hyperinflation if we also default on internal debt.

As noted earlier and elsewhere, as a nation, we are so incredibly screwed!

52 posted on 12/30/2010 3:03:47 PM PST by Zakeet (Always trust in the five G's: God, Gold, Guns, Grub, and the Government screwing up)
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To: GlockThe Vote

“I agree with Schiff 10000000%”

Ditto. Its not going to get better for a long time.


53 posted on 12/30/2010 3:04:20 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Las Vegas Ron

Check this out

Peter Schiff v. Ben Bernake

Who do you trust?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5sDKwMP6Pc


54 posted on 12/30/2010 3:05:03 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Schiff’s books and videos on youtube are well worth watching and keeping up with.


55 posted on 12/30/2010 3:09:29 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: Zakeet

LOL...boy did I misconstrue your post!

Believe me, I see what’s comming, not if but when is the part to figure out.


56 posted on 12/30/2010 3:10:24 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (The Tree of Liberty did not grow from an ACORN!)
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To: Las Vegas Ron

I personally believe they chose to have a long drawn out collapse vs a shock an awe collapse.

Gives them more time to prepare and longer for us slaves to get used to living under miserable conditions.


57 posted on 12/30/2010 3:12:00 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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To: GlockThe Vote
I personally believe they chose to have a long drawn out collapse vs a shock an awe collapse.

The speed to which it happens may be proportional to the ones thoughts on his reelection odds in 2012?

Just thinking out loud.

58 posted on 12/30/2010 3:20:10 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (The Tree of Liberty did not grow from an ACORN!)
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To: Las Vegas Ron
not if but when is the part to figure out

You are exactly correct.

Problem is that the U.S. economy is so huge, the dollar is still a reserve currency (which many will try to prop up at all cost), the public is so ill informed, and "loss of confidence" in our fiat currency is so subjective.

John Williams (Shadow Government Statistics) is predicting a hard landing any time within an 18 month window beginning mid-2011. Others forecast any time from now to five years from now.

And of course, Helicopter Ben is 100 percent sure he can contain inflation at the Fed.

Believe whomever you want.

59 posted on 12/30/2010 3:25:19 PM PST by Zakeet (Always trust in the five G's: God, Gold, Guns, Grub, and the Government screwing up)
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To: Las Vegas Ron

It won’t matter. By 2012, the damage will be so bad, so deep, that no matter who is in there, it wont matter all that much.


60 posted on 12/30/2010 3:26:29 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (Who needs Al Queda to worry about when we have Obama?)
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