While I hope that isn’t the case and that Allen waits until Warner is up for reelection to take his seat, I have to admit that I can see your scenario taking place also.
Best case scenario, Warner and Webb both lose to Conservatives. Worst case would be that internal fighting in the conservative camp lets both Warner and Webb not only hold onto their seats but puts a bad light on the Tea Party.
A couple of points I’d throw out:
1) The Tea Party candidates (in general) stand a much better chance of winning if the various Tea Party organisations can become more politically savvy. It’s one thing to talk about how an “everyman” can run for political office, it’s quite another to actually successfully pull it off. The problem is that when politically savvy people run and win, even if they have the best of intentions, they are more likely to become corrupted by the system. It’s like our political system has a perverse way of selecting for political skill, while simultaneously corrupting that skill. We end up with more Caesars and Crassuses, and fewer Ciceros and Catos.
2) Somebody needs to hide Karl Rove in a cave in the middle of Greenland until December 2012.