Posted on 12/28/2010 1:43:14 PM PST by Moseley
Democrats were apparently under-represented in Delaware’s US Senate race on November 2, 2010, according to CNN exit polls taken on election night.
Voter registration for Delaware’s 2010 election totaled
Democrats: 47 %.
Republicans: 29.4%.
“Other” & Independents: 23.5%
(Voter registration closed on October 9, 2010. Registration totals are as of October 21, 2010.)
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
However, actual voter turn out according to CNN’s exit poll was:
Democrats: 44%.
Republicans: 30%.
“Other” & Independents: 27%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=DES01p1
Thus Democrats were under-represented among the actual voters who turned out in the November 2 election.
Only 44% of actual voters were Democrats although 47% of all registered voters are Democrats. Republicans comprised 30% of actual voters while being only 29.4% of registered voters. (Because Democrat registration surged 11.2% between 2008 and 2010, a full 11.2% of Democrat registered voters are recently-registered and probably highly motivated to vote after recently registering.)
If CNN’s exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine O’Donnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote – harming Delaware’s “down ballot” races – is clearly false.
Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.
Two competing theories are being disputed about the US Senate race between Republican Christine O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons. A major debate – perhaps even a healthy debate – is raging within the Republican Party of Delaware about the future of Republicans after the November 2, 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Good grief, 18% of the 30% Republican cohort in Delaware would be 6% of the total population ~ and Delaware had 123,025 Republican voters show up in November.
If Epi-Scopals and "progressive Lutherans" are to be estimated at 6% that'd been about 7500 more Republican voters, assuming these two traditions do ordinarily provide lots of Republican voters (due to their economic class more than anything else).
With those bodies having about 19,000 reported members in Delaware, and maybe 40% of them being adult voters ~ with some interest in politics, that'd be 7200 voting members, you find that the number of Republicans who sat out the vote or voted for Coons is pretty much equal to the number of probable Republican voters that can be found in the suspect congregations.
So, yeah, http://www.TheArda.com/ has enough information to come up with numbers to match my estimate of what happened.
Isn't that what you'd guess to be the case?
This was a real Protestant versus not-quite real Protestant dispute, and the not-quite real Protestants showed their a---- and voted for the Commie.
(BTW, that's a relative values thing)
So you don’t have any facts about the vote in Delaware and how it broke down by Protestant/Catholic, much less by each denomination.
A welfare check is the best way way to motovate a Democrat. That or let them believe they are stealing something.
That is the bottom line. The defeat of Castle has huge implications & it was absolutely required if conservatives are to take the lead.
Now, do you have a better explanation for why we had that many people just walk away?
Look, we've been finding this over and over in election after election. There are people who are members of a certain category of MainLine churches who are TOTALLY intolerant of holy rollers and fundamentalists. You can count on the Mainliners to walk away from them.
It's like setting a clock.
Now, why do you want numbers on Catholic voters? They weren't a problem that anyone could tell. Karl Rove's continued attacks suggests he was hearing all about it from the boys at church.
BTW, looking at Delaware's church census by denomination it wasn't the Methodists or the Baptists who walked away from her ~ she was, BTW, a formerly lapsed Catholic who has been back attending Catholic services for quite some time. Used to be your basic Baptist or Methodist wouldn't vote for a Catholic ~ but not they do ~ probably because so many Catholic candidates are Republican!
When you find the facts rather than your speculation then I will be interested, since you have been repeatedly posting it, I just assumed that you had the actual voting breakdown.
When Eliot Spitzer starts defending you, it ought to tell you you’ve made a BIG mistake. He starts right off making excuses for himself. I didn’t realize the guy was such a wuss. I sure hope COD learned some things during her run. I hope we see her again.. but a lot shrewder and ready to fight.
If you can't follow it don't worry about it. It's an absolutely vital method in political analysis.
I just demonstrated that the Republican party in Delaware can no longer trust Lutherans (ELCA) and Epi-Scopals to vote Republican as they have done traditionally since the advent of the Civil War. This is a serious problem since these two communities account for a major part of the country club Republicans who run and pay for party operations.
I doubt Republicans will win another statewide race in Delaware in this century (as long as those guys continue to play a part). The TEA Party probably ought to plan on taking over the whole operation while they're at it. Just clear those guys out of the operation.
You haven’t demonstrated anything except your ability to speculate, and then get hung up on it as meaningful.
Those are the kind of experiences that can give a person the mettle.. and wisdom they’ll need to win the next time around. I hope she doesn’t forget what she learned.
Here’s what I think.
Rove is bad for our country—very bad.
O’Donnell is good for our country, too bad she’s not in Washington yet.
Whether or not Rove took her out really doesn’t matter. He wanted to.
Now it’s easier to understand why the president he advised so closely had so many liberal slip-ups.
Well, I agree with you. I’m 100% pro O’Donnell, 100% anti Rove.
I just don’t like the idea that many are pushing that Rove is so very important. Rove and the neocons are not that important or influential. Not at least in terms of voters.
Now, your turn ~ tell me why I can't be allowed to use numbers ~
I used to accuse our top brass of being interested only in addition since they could understand it by counting coasters in German beerjoints, or maybe by stacking martini glasses up after hours.
Every now and then they'd prove me wrong by trying percentages!
Find the actual voting data rather than your speculations on what the vote could have been.
Such things have to be estimated ~ statistical analysis can assist in developing probable limits.
I'm satisfied that a small group abandoned the Republican party and voted for the Commie out of religious spite.
LOL, who told you that, religion is a very common exit polling, and polling question.
We have extensive polling on the religious vote, church attendance vote, Protestant/Catholic vote, Jewish vote, etc.
Would you like to know how the Catholics and the Protestants voted in California in 2004 for instance, or how the Hispanic Protestant vote went in 2008?
Exit polling is also a bit too generalized, so I took the most general data from it ~ to wit that the Republicans lost a certain percentage of Republican voters to an out and out Commie.
That's not natural, so the explanation extends well beyond politics.
The religious bigotry of the high-church folks is well understood (if only to historians) ~ sometimes they even voice it. Check Pepy's Diary ~ lots of stuff he reported on ~ all high-church people mouthing off about Methodists ~ they even said the Methodists killed babies and drank their blood.
I suspect you have a horse in this race. may I recommend you shoot the horse and wake up. Too many of your fellow parishioners would rather vote for a Commie than a holy roller Catholic.
There isn’t a race, and yours is the only horse, you seem to be making some bizarre attack on religions voting against O’Donnell, but you can’t substantiate the attacks, you can’t even give the Protestant/Catholic breakdown.
I just want to see the actual vote breakdown.
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