The Comedian's "Economic Holocaust" ping list...
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Posted on 12/27/2010 8:08:50 AM PST by FromLori
I think both the Communist Chinese and the US economy is due for a big crash
The Communist Chinese has an economy based on what the US buys...the US cannot afford to buy all the Communist Chinese crap anymore. ComChina cannot rely on a domestic market...nor rely on Europe to buy its products.
It is obvious that Liberal Free Trade Globalism is an abject failure. The US can no longer afford to bailout anyone or anything because of the failure of Liberal Free Trade Globalism.
The US needs to slap tariffs on Communist Chinese goods, and do it now. It is better to crash the Communist Chinese than the American economy
What if we kill NAFTA, raise interest rates to a reasonable 5-8%, and do away with minimum wage. Things could not get much worse than they are now.
While I’m at it, food stamps. (EBT cards) can only purchase dried beans, hamburger, flour, cheese, milk, eggs, Thats all. Unemployment benefits only last 6 weeks, then you are eligible for an EBT card.
The FED is committed to easing until unemployment rises, which I think is a smart short run policy.
I have other fears about the U.S. economy though. We can't continue to buy everything from overseas except medical services and expect it to be sustainable. In truth we have more manufacturing than appears on the shelves of wal-mart, but I fear we continue to lose it through unwise trade policies.
I don't think the FED is prepared to continue easing until we are on labor wage parity with China. And we certainly don't want to go there. So trade policy needs to be modified to prevent the continued loss of U.S. jobs. QE by itself is unlikely to achieve this.
Vegas makes the US the favorite and gives a 7 point spread. China has more, a lot more, poor people. If China’s inflation worsens, those people can’t buy food. Hungry poor people will riot, and China already has serious internal security issues. China can always use it’s massive foreign exchange reserves to buy food and distribute it, but logistically that’s a nightmare, and will only happen after there’s violence.
The US policy is idiotic, but currently our margins are better than China’s.
In technical terms, it's a capital-goods bubble. Monetary inflation is absorbed in producing capital goods, which increase productivity and make the inflation look harmless. This kind of bubble is one that always fools monetarists, because statistics show that the price rises predicted by the quantity theory are absorbed by productivity gains.
What's really happening, though, is monetary-inflation-induced overproduction. Thanks to the ratcheting up of the money supply, the brakes that normally moderate capital-goods growth are disabled. As a result, businesses are started that would not have been profitable absent the inflation.
The United States went through a capital-goods bubble, which the monetarists of the time were blind to because the monetary inflation didn't really spill over into price inflation. I'm referring to the 1920s.
The PRC is riding the tiger here. If the monetary inflation is damped off, there'll be a lot of ostensibly productive malinvestment revealed. Once the hammer falls, China is likely to down-spin into an all-out depression. That's the long-term wages of a capital-goods bubble.
Business is VERY hesitant to invest in workers since the 2008 recession. Investing in brick and mortar is ok but not workers.
This tells me our industries are getting ready for another major economic contraction very soon.
Like two Indians in a knife fight, we are tied together..............
If America crashes, China goes down with it. They have been selling us so much stuff, and still are, that they could not handle the amount of productivity they would have to idle. Most Chinese factories are already way under utilized and the workers are complaining almost constantly about low hours. If America stops buying “stuff”, they will be hurting really badly and there is not another market to go to. The “myth” of selling to themselves is just that, a myth. Their population does not have the disposable income to buy all the junk they make.
THX THX.
BTW,
Do you have solar and wind electricity generating capacity?
What’s the most fitting economical basic system you or anyone could recommend worth praying for?
Is there a DIY kit available?
I hate these multiple choice questions!
Well... if we crash, then China will almost certainly crash, and experience significant unrest as well.
Difficult to know if it will go the other way around.
With manufacturing, China can afford and live with much more inflation. People work, sustainable revenues go to government, and it continues. And contrary to over three years of propaganda harping that the Chinese economy would crash with fewer American buyers, China has found quite a few other customers.
Without manufacturing, a country cannot sustain revenues for big government. After the repudiation of debt is forced by fed-up citizens, we’ll finally see small government.
Answer to Quix’ question:
http://www.builditsolar.com/Experimental/PEXColDHW/Overview.htm
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/SpaceHeating/SolarShed/solarshed.htm
Wind only works well enough in places too harsh for most people to live and destroys commercial wind turbines (small alternators, bearings, winds too high, think 110 mph wind loads in the real mountains). Due to tax credit welfare for the “rich” (heh, heh), PV (solar electric) component prices are sky high. “Professional” installers are even higher.
But the solar heating systems are very good and well worth it, if you install yourself. And propane and natural gas will probable be pretty expensive a little over a year from now.
If one crashes, the other won’t be far behind...
I've got the beginnings of solar which, here in central TX, makes a lot of sense. Not enough wind for wind mills, but I do plan on hooking progressives up to a treadmill to generate power. They slow down, the current from the battery bank feeds back to their...well you get the picture.
You might try this site. Currently, the top article is a DIY generator from lawn mower parts. Search solar or wind and you should find something of interest. (best prepper site, IMHO)
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