“Again, do the math, I have.
States with few electoral votes tend to be conservative and the split tend to favor republicans.”
I’d hate to have to wade through it...but again intuitively, we know the GOP is over-represented in low population states. States like Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana that get the baseline minimum of votes. If any of these states split their electoral votes, the Democrats will start getting a piece of that over-representative pie. Mathmatically, this has to hurt the GOP.
One more time, do the math, or look at what I’ve already done.
1996 Presidential General Election Data - National
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1996&datatype=national&def=1&f=0&off=0&elect=0
Existing System electoral votes:
Clinton 379
Dole 159
Perot 0
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Clinton 266
Dole 224
Perot 46
- - - - - -
2000 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Gore 266
Bush 271
Nader 0
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Gore 258
Bush 263
Nader 7
- - - - - -
2004 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Bush 286
Kerry 251
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Bush 279
Kerry 258
- - - - - -
2008 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Obama 365
McCain 173
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Obama 289
McCain 249
- - - - - -
Over the last 4 election cycles:
Republicans gain 185 votes,
Democrats lose 121 votes,
Third Party goes from zero to 53 votes.
One more time, do the math, don’t theorize.
Or look at what I’ve already done, past election results are easily available.
1996 Presidential General Election Data - National
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1996&datatype=national&def=1&f=0&off=0&elect=0
Existing System electoral votes:
Clinton 379
Dole 159
Perot 0
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Clinton 266
Dole 224
Perot 46
- - - - - -
2000 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Gore 266
Bush 271
Nader 0
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Gore 258
Bush 263
Nader 7
- - - - - -
2004 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Bush 286
Kerry 251
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Bush 279
Kerry 258
- - - - - -
2008 Presidential General Election Data - National
Existing System electoral votes:
Obama 365
McCain 173
Each state keep their electoral votes but split them within the state by their respective voting:
Obama 289
McCain 249
- - - - - -
Over the last 4 election cycles:
Republicans gain 185 votes,
Democrats lose 121 votes,
Third Party goes from zero to 53 votes.
Not necessarily. In exchange for parts of Wyoming and Montana, the GOP gets a share of California and New Yawk, which have far more electors.