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The fact that these kinds of articles are starting to pop up in well respected foreign policy, geopolitical publications is a little disconcerting
1 posted on 12/21/2010 9:22:35 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: MississippiMan; ctdonath2; LibertyRocks; GonzoGOP; b4its2late; bert; maquiladora; hennie pennie; ...

ping


2 posted on 12/21/2010 9:25:53 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott
The fact that these kinds of articles are starting to pop up in well respected foreign policy, geopolitical publications is a little disconcerting

While I agree with your assertion, I also can't help but wonder why there has been no actual evacs, openly or quietly, and no suggestion for noncombatants or US citizens to leave the area. If there is really such a possibility of a real war, wouldn't that be prudent? It makes me think that the TPTB know it's not there yet.

I'm not an expert on this region, or the situation between the Koreas, so maybe someone can explain that to me.
3 posted on 12/21/2010 9:33:00 AM PST by ZX12R (IMPEACH OBAMA NOW!)
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To: jhpigott; DarthVader

hey gates, why don’t you send a couple battalions of queers over there to take care of things ?


4 posted on 12/21/2010 9:35:25 AM PST by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: jhpigott

How many more people can they fit into Daegu?


5 posted on 12/21/2010 9:36:53 AM PST by GeronL (#7 top poster at CC, friend to all, nicest guy ever, +96/-14, ignored by 1 sockpuppet.. oh & BANNED)
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To: jhpigott

Yes it is. Though it’s really mass evacuation of Seoul (population 10million+), not the whole country. It’s Seoul that’s vulnerable & will be attacked.


7 posted on 12/21/2010 9:55:41 AM PST by nuconvert ( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
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To: jhpigott
The fact that these kinds of articles are starting to pop up in well respected foreign policy, geopolitical publications is a little disconcerting

But understandable. I think the NK-watchers believe that the impending post-Kim era will not come quietly. And while it's not entirely clear what form the unrest will take, it's a better than even bet that there will be a military component, possibly or probably directed toward the South.

So, by necessity, they're starting to look seriously at the contingencies, which are unpleasant.

Note that there's a complementary military component to this.

A mass of refugees moving south, is mostly a problem if the defending military is either being driven back onto them, or if supplies and reinforcements are trying to move northward through the refugees.

To avoid that problem, I think the military plan would have to rely heavily on stopping the NK invasion early, and on keeping supply lines short and relatively forward.

It means establishing air dominance (which should happen quickly), and also making sure that enough artillery and other defensive preparations survive the initial bombardment to effectively disrupt and destroy the waves of invading NK infantry.

It works otherwise too: to be successful, an NK invasion would have to rely on speed, because it's almost certain that they will not be able to maintain their supply lines. They know that eventually they'll have to try to live off the land as they move south, and they want to forestall that for as long as they can. So it's doubly important slow them down or stop them, because they'll quickly starve.

Finally, it's imperative to establish and maintain naval superiority along the coasts, in order to keep open the crucial seaborne resupply lines and ports. Keeping control of the coasts and ports means that, even if the NK breaks through in the middle, they'll end up with long, exposed flanks, which can eventually be cut.

Note that none of this really applies, if the North Koreans' intent is simply to stage a götterdämmerung scenario. In that case, I think they'd just go for causing maximum destruction, without any real intent to follow up with invasion and occupation.

11 posted on 12/21/2010 10:11:46 AM PST by r9etb
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To: jhpigott
sparking one the biggest mass-evacuations since the British and French pulled 338,000 troops out of Dunkirk in 1940.

I'd think that a better comparison would be the German population of East Prussia in 1945. Civilians running in terror rather than an evacuation of military troops.

12 posted on 12/21/2010 10:16:23 AM PST by glorgau
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To: jhpigott
If the North achieves a surprise massive assault initiated with the use of atomic weapons they will take Seoul. We will then be treated to a parade of defeated troops, staged confessions and pictures of masses of slaves working for the benefit of North Korea.

The Divine One and his apostles by their weakness are creating this pending disaster. The North Koreans may feel that the time for attack will never be better. There is a distinct possibility that this administration would abjectly surrender-though call it by another name.

Time will tell.

13 posted on 12/21/2010 10:33:58 AM PST by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: jhpigott
It's like living on a heavily populated barrier island during hurricane season - if you wait to get off until you're sure of the hit, you won't get off at all...
14 posted on 12/21/2010 10:38:13 AM PST by GOPJ (Best App for 'the world" : http://www.questvisual.com/)
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To: jhpigott
My father had his 18th birthday in Korea on Aug 2nd, 1950 as a member of the 1st Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment...or what was left of it.

Five days prior on July 27th and while only 17yrs old he was at the Hadong Ambush.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadong_Ambush

On his birthday he wrote this to his mother (I have the letter here, copying):

"Dear Mom and Dad,

I finally got around to writing you a letter. I would have wrote sooner but I didn't have a chance. I have been very busy for the past month. And there was no place to mail the letter. I have been in Korea for the past month but I am OK.

Our unit was hit pretty bad and there are only about 400 of us left.

It goes on from there. It was the first knowledge that my grandparents had of him being there, thinking he was still in Okinawa.

This is not nearly as bad as the losses the 24th Infantry Div suffered in the first 3 months of that war...being the first one's there. That entire division had only 184 surviving members after 3 months.

We cannot waste that sacrifice.

19 posted on 12/21/2010 11:15:06 AM PST by Mariner (USS Tarawa, VQ3, USS Benjamin Stoddert, NAVCAMS WestPac, 7th Fleet, Navcommsta Puget Sound)
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To: jhpigott

LOL! If the NEO’s wait until the artillery shelling starts, then it’s not an evacuation - it’s a mass panic scramble of the survivors. And NORK special forces will be between them and the Southern ports, waiting to inflict more mayhem death and panic


20 posted on 12/21/2010 11:18:10 AM PST by silverleaf (All that is necessary for evil to succeed, is that good men do nothing)
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