Posted on 12/21/2010 9:22:33 AM PST by jhpigott
12/20/10
As the Korean peninsula enters what U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates calls "a difficult and potentially dangerous time," the long-dormant Korean conflict is rumbling back into the public consciousness. Government officials from the U.S., South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and other states throughout the region are planning for the worst-case scenario: renewed war, perhaps nuclear, and a massive exodus from South Korea. If tensions continue to escalate, hundreds of thousands of foreign civilians living in South Korea will flee, sparking one the biggest mass-evacuations since the British and French pulled 338,000 troops out of Dunkirk in 1940.
(snip)
If North Korea launches another artillery strike against South Korea--or simply hurls itself at the 38th parallel--the resulting confrontation could trigger one of the largest population movements in human history. According to one account, 140,000 U.S. government noncombatants and American citizens would look to the U.S. government for a way out. And that's just the Americans. Hundreds of thousands of South Korean citizens and other foreign nationals would be clamoring for any way off of the wintery, dangerous peninsula.
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
“btw ... I’m enjoying the conversation. Thanks!”
me as well . . . can be tough to find geopolitical wonks to engage in discussion sometimes
“No doubt. But as soon as he tries to blow up Seoul, he also invites a massive cross-border response against the conventional forces.”
Speaking of sanity, given the recent escalatory provocations, I think Kim may be crazy enough to think he could get away with a limited shelling of portions of the mainland, north of Seoul, or perhaps even a “limited” shelling of Seoul itself, without inviting a regime change style invasion by the ROK/US.
At which time our decision makers are going to have to decide just how far do we want to take things. I imagine that’s one of the things warplanners at the Pentagon are looking at atm. Would a “limited” artillery barrage onto the mainland provoke general hostilities across the peninsula or would be good with silencing the offending guns and maybe a regime target or two?
From a Stars and Stripes article dated today - It looks like the North still has the South on edge becuase they have not withdrawn (as of today) the additional forces they mobilized along the west coast sea border
A senior South Korean government official said the military would remain prepared for the possibility of a “surprise” attack in coming days. He spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The Korean People’s Army showed no signs of pulling back. North Korea has deployed ground-to-air and ground-to-ship missiles in the west - where the Koreas dispute their sea border - and are poised to fire artillery, Yonhap reported, citing an unidentified military official.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.