Posted on 12/12/2010 10:47:16 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
California contrail: Four conflicting eyewitness reports
One month after the KCBS video purporting to show a missile contrail off the coast of California went viral, a heated debate over what exactly created the contrail persists. Experts have offered convincing analysis supporting the theory that the contrail represents an SLBM launch, while internet pundits have assembled a formidable collection of evidence that the contrail was created by UPS flight 902. The debate is seemingly at an impasse, and it might be a good time to step back from the intense data analysis and review the basic facts of November 8, 2010.There are two known eyewitnesses who captured images of the contrail. Gil Leyvas is the helicopter camera man for KCBS in Los Angeles who videotaped the contrail and Rick Warren lives on Long Beach and photographed the contrail from his tenth story balcony. A 50 minute phone interview with Leyvas was obtained for this report and discussed further via email, and Warren was also contacted by email.
According to Leyvas, his video was obtained while filming a sunset view for a KCBS weather report. As he was filming, Leyvas noticed an object on the horizon that appeared to be climbing vertically out of the ocean, and he zoomed in on the object. He videotaped the contrail for a total of ten minutes and subsequently continued to view the contrail for an additional ten minutes. Leyvas maintains that the object itself that created the contrail only remained in view for two to three minutes. For 30 to 45 seconds, the object glowed brightly and then seemed to disappear from view. His initial impression was that the object was traveling east towards the coast. On reviewing the video later, he had the impression the object may instead have been heading away from the coast, towards the northwest.
The highly unusual appearance of the sunset contrail shown on TV and posted online, combined with Leyvas perception that the object creating the contrail only remained in view for two to three minutes, constitutes the primary basis upon which many observers believe the object was a Sub Launched Ballistic Missile.
Rick Warren wasnt sure what the object was that he was photographing on November 8th. I was shooting with a telephoto lens and looking through a viewfinder so I never really saw the separation of the object and the contrail until I looked at the photos, but Im sure that this whole thing lasted way too long to be a missile. I see lots of contrails from my 10th floor balcony but the difference in this one was that it seemed to be going up.
Having seen many contrails, what stood out for Warren was the vertical nature of the contrail, not that it looked like a missile exhaust plume. Some of his photos of the contrail were posted on the local ABC7 website, and were utilized by Mick West of Contrailscience.com to create a composite image of the flight progression of the object. The time stamps on Warrens photos were used to establish that the object creating the contrail remained in view for 4 minutes 43 seconds in Warrens photos. Based on altitude and position, the object first appeared in Leyvas video at least five minutes prior to Warrens photos. After seeing Wests analysis of the images, Warren says, Im now of the opinion that it was indeed a plane."
At this point, one of the most glaring discrepancies between these eyewitness accounts must be addressed. Most observers looking at Warrens images agree that the small dark object which appears at the top of each of his later photos is the same craft creating the plume that was seen in his earlier photos as well as that which was seen in Leyvas video.
If the object that created the contrail was still visible in Warrens photos, then the object itself is not likely to have been a missile. Solid fuel engines such as those used in an SLBM create an uninterrupted exhaust plume for two to three minutes, after which time the solid fuel is spent, and the missile is usually out of view.
On the other hand, when an airliner transitions from cold moist air to warmer drier air, the dew point changes and contrail formation decreases. In the case of USP902, the airliner would have been transitioning from moist cool air at altitude over the ocean to warmer, drier air over land. This could explain the contrail disappearing as the object moved farther east.
Mick West created a "chronological cut" of Leyvas video and posted it to YouTube. The transition from moist cool air over the ocean to warmer, drier air over land may have occurred at 1:17 to 1:20 of the chronological cut, which Warren referred to as the separation of the object and the contrail. When still images from Leyvas video are compared to the overlay of Warrens photos, there is a remarkable similarity and continuity between the two sets of images, providing a better time frame for Leyvas video within the context of Warrens time stamps:
When Leyvas was initially queried regarding these later photos, he replied,
the [Contrailscience composite] animation only shows the path the plume drifted and not anything in flight. The 30-45 seconds of video I captured in which I could see the object (the portion of the video showing the glow/flame of the object at its pinnacle) occurred 8-10 minutes prior to the animated images of the animation (if the time stamps are accurate). I have no way of telling if those time stamps are accurate since the raw video has no real-time time stamp associated with it. I can only go by an estimated time based on the time we launched out of John Wayne airport and the approximate time of our weather shot. My guess is that the time stamps are relatively close to the accurate time. However, what you are seeing in those images is the plume drifting and not anything in flight.
Leyvas still maintains the object creating the contrail is not visible in Warrens photos 8 to 10 minutes later:
The separate smaller trail that is separate from the main body of the plume and that was captured by Warren in his photos, which makes it seem as if the object continued in flight, appears in my video to possibly be the top portion of the plume that partly dissipates leaving a segment of the tip adrift - detached from the main body of the plume. (I highlight "possibly be" because during that portion of the video, I zoom in and out and pan off and back onto the plume, so I'm not sure if what we are seeing is a stage of separation like that of a missile or if it's the tip of the plume separating from the main portion). I did zoom into that portion to see if I could see a craft of some kind (at the time I thought that there was a chance the object was still making condensation/exhaust) but there was nothing there creating that segment. Had there been, I know I would have been able to see it with the high-powered lens I was using. Add to that - if it was traveling toward us, the closer it would come the easier it would be to see it, but there was nothing there. That's why I said it was merely the plume adrift and not anything continuously flying.
Though there was no time code associated with the raw footage I shot, you are still able to accurately time the footage from the moment I started the recording (as we departed John Wayne airport) to the final moments of the mystery missile story. When I play the video I can time the duration of the object in flight which was between 30-45 seconds of "Glow Time" - which is inclusive within, and at the end of the 2-3 minute estimated flight time from which the plume was visible at the horizon ... I can rely on the raw footage as it plays to gauge my estimated times since it plays back in real time on the player deck's control track timer.
There were also two unknown witnesses who captured images of the contrail, both anonymous posters on the image hosting website Flickr. A photographer on Hermosa Beach, north of Leyvas and Warren, uploaded a photo of the November 8 sunset and only subsequently realized he had captured the same contrail due to media reports. From his vantage point, without the setting sun directly back-lighting the contrail, it apparently appeared similar to the other contrails in his sunset photo.
Another anonymous photographer uploaded photos of clouds at sunset on November 8, and noticed a bright horizontal contrail that he subsequently associated with the media reports regarding the contrail. Notice that in the case of these latter two eyewitnesses, the first noted nothing unusual about the contrail until he read media reports about it, and the second viewed a horizontal, not vertical contrail.
Finally, the opinions of the known military experts must be taken into consideration. Several highly credible experts have stated their opinion that the contrail in question represented the launching of an SLBM.
A little further background from Leyvas might shed more light on the way the video was edited and presented to the public. Leyvas related that the video was taken during sweeps week in his TV market, and part of his job during sweeps week is to go out and look for and capture video of interest for sweeps week ratings. The video he captured of the contrail was subsequently heavily edited before being aired, and less than two minutes of the ten minutes of video has been seen by these experts. From the perspective of garnering sweeps week ratings, the footage was certainly successful.
It may be that the experts would modify their opinion based on viewing the entire footage. The footage is owned by the local CBS affiliate and nothing was found by the Department of Defense in reviewing the footage that would prevent its release to the public. According to Leyvas, it might still be available on their server. If that is the case, it should just be a matter of uploading the unedited ten minutes of video to YouTube to put an end to the debate.
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That's not what the logs say today. See post #259. But it is now being said that it wasn't an altitude change that caused the cessation of the contrail it was because it was getting closer to land. The contrail explanations change regularly so you have to keep up.
Last question. In your reading, I imagine you saw that some contrails grow if the humidity is high enough, rather than thin out. Numerous pictures of this are available. They also spread naturally as clouds of smoke, etc. do.
Second question mentions "moving obviously faster than sound." Where does that come from?
First question. The track of the UPS plane is probably still available. I don't know it anyone has checked altitudes. As far as the humidity, changes can be small and local and not easily determined.
BTW, have you see the San Clemente picture from December 31st 2009?
Here's the article:
http://articles.ocregister.com/2009-12-31/blogs/24546879_1_images-rocket-crystal-cove
Here's the picture.
You couldn't discredit a lead penny, you yellow-bellied ape. Actually, you are showing very clear signs of serious mental problems. I really hope they don't let you operate machinery ;).
Actually, FlightAware shows the flight beginning its descent into Ontario shortly before 5:30pm Pacific Time, just as the video was being shot. It went from 39,000 feet to 29,000 feet over the course of six minutes from 5:27pm to 5:33pm.
Just look at the track log, it's right there starting at 8:27pm Eastern time.
Plenty of flakes in the medical profession too, I'm afraid. Zawahri is a pediatrician. No, that is merely a little back reference to what people often push the most irrational stuff.
No one has proven Leyvas' main point, that the object disappeared from view after 2 to 3 minutes.
So, apart from writing for the hated WND (and bragging of it on your profile), you are also hanging the actual producer of the footage out as a liar while, of course, thanking him profusely for helping you.
As I've said before: something about this case (and I think it is the rather bad conclusions you have to draw) is scaring some people quite literally out of their tiny minds. At which point they *must* rationalize it into something harmless.
That’s not true. The track log, at the bottom of the page, shows it ascended from 37k ft to 39k ft at about 5:10 PM PST and held until about 6:00 PM when it descended into Ontario. It does not give times in EST anywhere on the page. Are you sure you are looking at Nov. 8th and not today’s flight?
Better late than never. I have to tell you, though -- WND's uselessness as a trustworthy news source has been obvious for over 10 years.
It was an MD 11, a wide body jet with three engine. One on each wing and one in the tail.
Now as to your 'typical' contrail, I suggest you look a few minutes after the jet passed. In atmospheric conditions where contrails can linger for a long time, you will not longer see seperate contrails from each engine, but one large contrail as they tend to spread out and merge with each other.
U R NUTZ
As a side note, aircraft ascend as they burn off fuel because their engines work more efficiently at higher altitudes (depending on the winds). Higher is better, even for relatively short periods of time.
Yes, it is right there. Drag the bar across the graph and look at the altitude reading on the right hand side. At about 5:10 PM PST it ascends from 37k to 39k ft. and at it doesn’t begin to descend again until about 6:20 PM.
Sigh. Did you scroll down a bit on that page and review the minute by minute breakdown of locations and altitudes of the aircraft. It ascends from FL370 to FL390 between 3:55 and 4:05PST and starts its descent from FL390 at 5:27PST.
You are a case study in the type of person who bites off on conspiracy theories and why.
Besides, the "altitude difference is why it stopped contrailing" theory has been dropped. It's now "the air over the ocean is more humid (at 30+k ft. LOL) than it is over land."
You're a case study in a sheeple that believes anything with a fancy picture attached to it.
And three minutes later, it was at 29,000 feet.
What's not to believe?
What difference does it make as to why the contrail stopped? The fact is that it did for whatever reason, and a picture is worth a thousand words, and they demonstrate that it wasn't a sub-launched missile.
You're kidding right? An hour off? It makes a lot of difference.
"It was still at 33k ft. at 5:30 when it crossed the coastline. That is at least ten minutes after Warren's pics show that it stopped leaving a contrail."
At 5:30 it was still 42 miles west of the coastline. And who says it was leaving a contrail when I crossed the coastline?
"Besides, the "altitude difference is why it stopped contrailing" theory has been dropped. It's now "the air over the ocean is more humid (at 30+k ft. LOL) than it is over land."
What are you talking about? Dropped by who? Do you think there is some official panel discussing this issue?
"You're a case study in a sheeple that believes anything with a fancy picture attached to it."
Though it will fly right over your head, the irony of your statement is that it is YOU who believes something based solely on a picture. I rely on all the facts and data.
You were partially right. At 5:31 it was crossing Santa Catalina Island. Which is about 25 miles from Long Beach and almost due south. Airport Monitor
And who says it was leaving a contrail when I crossed the coastline?
That is the point. It magically stopped creating a contrail at 5:19 while it was at 39k ft. even though it continued to maintain 39k ft. until 5:27. The following pic will show you when the contrail stopped.
What are you talking about? Dropped by who? Do you think there is some official panel discussing this issue?
The people discussing it are the people discussing it. If you want to stick to the old worn out theory about altitude you're free to.
YOU who believes something based solely on a picture.
Video. Video vs. graph.
Be pleased to concern yourself with this picture: (your own evidence)
<img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8SJPjCbt-YM/TQUNW9wHgEI/AAAAAAAAAlw/OnlNkI-r4yo/s1600/Vid-Rick-Mick-Link.4.jpg" />
Note the various positions of the "contrail." Again assuming reasonable accuracy, there are FIVE positions for the "contrail," apparently taken within 4 minutes and 43 seconds. They are more or less parallel, which means that the wind had a Northerly component that was essentially the same for over 200 miles . Also note the dissipation, caused during that 4 min, 43 seconds. Not only very rapid, but essentially even, for over 200 miles!
Then, nothing, near the cloud, is shaped even vaguely like an airplane.
DG
>>”Second question mentions “moving obviously faster than sound.” Where does that come from?”
Unless the video has been speeded up, that object, at 37,000 feet, is moving much faster than a subsonic jet. This is from many observations.
DG
No. I'm completely right. At 5:30 (the time you referenced), it was at 33.33N 118.63W. Plot it out on Google Earth yourself. It was moving at 606MPH ground speed, which means 10 miles per minute. At 5:31 it was probably 10 miles closer to the coast and directly over Catilina Island.
"That is the point. It magically stopped creating a contrail at 5:19 while it was at 39k ft. even though it continued to maintain 39k ft. until 5:27. The following pic will show you when the contrail stopped."
That is awesome. Can I assume you now agree that the photo you reference is of the object Leyvas was filming? And at 5:23:47 (the last image in the sequence) the object is still producing a contrail. Unless you believe that dark line is an aircraft or missile body.
"The people discussing it are the people discussing it. If you want to stick to the old worn out theory about altitude you're free to."
Thank you. As you continue to prove it's validity, I will.
"Video. Video vs. graph"
Riiight. You mean the 52 seconds of spliced pieces of out of sequence stills and zoomed in shots? That video? Like I said, I prefer to reference all the facts.
I never said it wasn't.
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