How many congressional seats is NY losing? Which districts will the redistricing impact, do you think? I have read mention of NY-23 being broken up.
NY-23 would be very difficult to break up because of its geographic location in a corner of the state. It could be combined with the NY-24 and give GOP freshman Hannah the advantage, but I doubt that Republicans would support this because this could probably require that (i) the Democrat Northern Tier counties were added to the NY-20 (which would probably make that district Dem-leaning and cost Chris Gibson his newly won seat) and (ii) add Oswego to the NY-25 (which would make it a Democrat district and cost Buerkle her newly won seat).
I believe that two will be lost to New York. I had guessed that one will be Maurice Hinchley, a leftist DemocRAT from a very convoluted district. He’s a radical and anti-Israel (Ed Koch endorsed his opponent). I have no idea where the other district to go is, but I expect they’ll split the difference, eliminating one DemocRAT and one Republican.