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To: Williams

Oh, wow. A whopping 5 million on a planet of more than 6 billion??? Over the next ten years?

Is that even statistically significant?

When will this snake oil peddling end?


23 posted on 12/04/2010 9:43:46 AM PST by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: BradyLS
Six Billion To Die In Next Century!

(I guarantee it.)


57 posted on 12/04/2010 10:14:40 AM PST by Iron Munro (This is our culture; fight for it. This is our flag; pick it up. This is our country; take it back.)
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To: BradyLS
A whopping 5 million on a planet of more than 6 billion??? Over the next ten years?

Is that even statistically significant?

If I die in a traffic fatality today, worldwide traffic statistics will not change, significantly, but it will be significant to me. The deaths of five million people are nothing to dismiss, but this report is. It is risible on its face, like all the other hogwash flowing out of Cancun. (I admit I'm jealous and wish I could go.)

Statistical significance is a different concept. It addresses the question of whether or not trends seen in a collection of data indicate something real or can be explained away by chance variations. To a statistician "statistical significance" has a precise and limited meaning. To address your point, of a population of 6 billion people worldwide, about one in fifty (or so) die in any given year, producing about 120 million deaths a year or about 1.2 billion in the next ten years. Would it be possible, knowing what we know now to even detect an additional 5 million deaths among 1.2 billion? Let than a 0.5% increase? I do not believe that current demographic models are precise enough to allow such predictions. It's like jobs saved or created: It has nothing to do with statistics and everything to do with unvalidated models in the service of policy preferences.

Statistics, or regression theory can make statements about the likelihood of various outcomes given that a particular model is valid and can compare observations to models to rate the relative value or validity of models, but it cannot foretell the future or deliver epistemological certainty.

72 posted on 12/04/2010 10:38:51 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Socialists are to economics what circle squarers are to math; undaunted by reason or derision.)
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To: BradyLS

They will add up all who are dying everyday and say its because of climate change, never mind that people actually are not immortal..Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez...pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease...bozo obamas idiotus
or should I say obamma mamba jamma lenin Khomeini..


74 posted on 12/04/2010 10:50:30 AM PST by aces
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To: BradyLS

When I took accounting, “statistically significant” was a measure of 5%. But with inflation and all, and the new normal invented by PC, maybe that’s changed (upwards)


86 posted on 12/04/2010 11:43:57 AM PST by quintr
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