” China want’s none of this, a serious buildup in that area means China loses quite a bit of ground in its own aspirations of taking back Taiwan. “
For another ‘take’ on China’s position in this —
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2636228/posts?page=24#24
I personally believe China is maneuvering to keep the commerce flowing and not get f'd with when they go at Taiwan which could very well happen without a shot being fired.
I guess if we start hearing scuttlebutt about China building up on the NROK's border ONLY, we'll know their out of the game and protecting against a surge of refugee's.
But could be a head fake too, their sneaky little bastards.
The fly in the ointment, in your take, is that there is a third possibility: the US does get involved, the NK government falls apart quickly, and a new government emerges that isn’t hostile to the US. In this case, the damage to the Korean peninsula may be far less than anticipated, and China would really end up the loser, both in terms of having a buffer between itself and a pro-US SK, and also losing out on the opportunity to dominate a newly formed unified Korea.
Of course, if they really do think the way you do, this gives them enormous incentive to do everything they can, covertly, to support both the NK government, and also the NK war effort ...
On the other hand this may be what the chins are looking for. If the US goes in, now the chins decide to get involved or they lose face with their nationalist pride. I bet their generals are chomping at the bit to show off all their brand new hardware. They can use it as a pretext to go after Taiwan because we would be to busy with NK.