[campaignPete R-CT]

"...won again by a plurality in 2010 by fewer votes than Hoffman siphoned off of the GOP challenger by running as an independent."

First, let's get our facts straight. Hoffman did not run in the general. He dropped out and endorsed Doheny. Second, NY law does not allow him to remove his name from the ballot. He was on the Conservative Party line. Not an independent.

Doheny lost by 1800 and Hoffman still got 6000 votes. But you are jumping to conclusions that those Hoffman voters would have gone to Doheny. Polls show otherwise.

If NY is really losing 2 House seats due to the census, one of those seats will be upstate. Unless Louise Slaughter retires (or some younger person), 2 incumbents will be thrown into the same seat. Owens or Slaughter seem to be a likely possibility.

the LOCAL GOPers in NY-23 have been indifferent to defeating Owens ever since summer '09. They know of the redistricting, so they knew their new congressman would be a temp. And they also figure (wrongly) they can get rid of Owens in the future whenever they put their mind to it.

This redistricting is a real puzzling, interesting mess. Owens lives in Plattsburgh, which effects this matter.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Mr. Owens has 80,597 votes overall and leads Mr. Doheny by 1,795 votes in the 11-county district.

http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20101120/NEWS03/311209964

[9YearLurker]

Hoffman was on the ballot and only dropped out a few weeks before the election—let’s get and keep our facts straight. And the idea that a poll could micro-detect that Hoffman’s 6000 voters weren’t otherwise GOP voters is laughable.