Posted on 11/28/2010 8:59:07 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
That will never happen, and let me tell you why. There is NO COUNTRY (not one) that wants the North Korean regime to fail. Not China (which would have many refugees streaming to its borders), not the US, and most of all not South Korea (reunification would be bl@@dy expensive). When East and West Germany united, it cost quite a bit ....yet the population of West Germany was roughly 3 times that of East, and East Germany (while significantly behind W.Germany) was not a total basketcase. North Korea has around 25 million people (I have not confirmed that, and it is from memory, so I may be off) while South Korea has around 50 million (see prior statement) ....thus the demographics are far worse than the W/E Germany issue. Furthermore, the two nations are totally disparate in terms of economic and other metrics (even nutritionally they are vastly different). If the two Koreas unified it would be an economic nightmare for South Korea.
Thus, 'One Korea' will remain more or less a nice thought (with sweet perfume oil and a nice sparkly finish).
Which is why there will be no B-2s laden with MOABs or whatever (even if the President is Obama, Palin, a re-incarnated Reagan, or Genghis Khan yelping from Gehenna). Taking out the Kims (even if it is done without them taking out Seoul in their death throes) will mean reunification with South Korea.
This is the real reason why Seoul always sends food and fuel oil to the North, and why they do not do much even after ships are sunk or assassination attempts made on presidents (check that one out ...and it did not occur during Obama's time). Same reason why American soldiers can be beheaded with an axe (another one to check out) by North Korea and nothing is done. I had a whole list of incidents the North had done some months back.
Is it because of the artillery? Well, that is an issue to be considered (in a war the North would lose, but the South would most assuredly have to give up Seoul to a firestorm). However, that is Big Reason #2. Big Reason #1 is that no one wants the Kims out of power for a number of reasons. For South Korea, the most important reason is that the Kims are the main reason there is no reunification, and with them gone then that will probably go on.
They do not want that.
Thus, the North could probably shell another small village or sink another ship. As long as they do not do anything 'too big' (which has become an art in Pyongyang, the ability to do something really bad but ensuring it is not 'too much') then nothing will happen.
There will be no B-2s. The South will not attack the North. The US (under ANY president ....even an amalgamation of the Greatest GOP hits) will NOT do anything. And the North, will also not do anything 'too' (that word again ....too) stupid. They will do things that are really atrocious, but nothing that will force the hands of the South.
This is also the reason why you do not see attempts at regime change in the North ....no one (not the Chinese, Russians, Americans, South Koreans) want that. If anything stupid happens in that regime, it will be because of the Generals deciding that Jong-Il's son is replaceable - but even then those Generals will be folk who can be expected not to push for reunification.
Face it - in a world that is not black-and-white, issues like North Korea can exist very nicely. For Pyongyang to be attacked they would have to push 'too far,' and so far a whole list of things they have done for decades have not gone too far. Reason: because (to look at South Korea only) they have to be measured against the cost (not just financial) that re-unification would entail. For the last couple of decades the equation has been simple. Rebuilding a few buildings on a small island costs less (financially and otherwise) than rebuilding an entire country of 25 million people. Sending a check to your crazy uncle with the 5 kids and drinking habit is cheaper than building an extension to your house and having him and his family stay there.
This is why South Korea never really reacts to the North, and why they provide them with food and fuel. Why there will be no attack on Pyongyang. Why the US will do nothing apart from splitting some atoms and having a nuclear carrier (and a couple of subs) prowl around in that area. Why China is sh!tt!ing bricks hoping this does not escalate (by the way, before market close before the shelling, someone sold over a billion Dollars on th eSouth Korean bourse ....must have been lucky coincidence, huh). Etc etc etc etc.
Next week: Why certain states like Pakistan get a free ride, while other states (e.g. Guam, Kosovo, Somali, Afghanistan, Panama, etc) get 'shocked and awed.'
You covered half of it. NK doesn’t want to be a part of anything. Now cover shooting missiles at that which they do not govern. Sometimes that leads to a serious sock in the mouth.
Creech brown and bld 200. What a hoot!
I can bet you nothing happens - apart from some more artillery at the most.
However, at sometime in the life of any politician or government, the ability to succeed despite itself runs out.
That's when the Spam hits the proverbial fan and the results will not be evenly distributed.
This could spiral out of control very quickly.
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