Exactly. It’s not rocket science — or rather it is, because I expect the ChiComs to use RATO on their birds to get them off the deck with a full bag of gas — but it’s obvious to anyone who follows military trends in this neck of the woods.
Could China build a supercarrier ala Nimitz? Probably, but I don’t think they will. They might instead build another Shi Lang type around a nuclear propulsion plant, but even that is doubtful. They can build three STOBAL carriers for the price of one Nimitz style birdfarm, and that will give them flexibility that even we cannot match — at least not for very long.
China is very heavily invested in Africa and many other parts of the developing world. They want and need to have a way to project force into those areas. Shi Lang and her follow on sisters will give them that capability.
Even Japan is also moving back into carrier aviation via the Hyuga and Ise class helicopters, which can be adapted for STOVL operations very quickly.
They even have a newer, much bigger design on the horizon with the 22DDH class. Why? Because the JMSDF planners can see what the ChiComs are doing and know that they are not going to be able to depend on the US to protect their interests forever, so they are going to have to do it themselves.
The big weakness in US NAVAIR the last few years has been the disappearance of the Toms. The Chinese would, I think, be looking to exploit that asymmetry by deploying R-33E/AA-9 "Amos"-equipped Su-33's afloat, which would replicate in some fashion the long reach of the F-14/AIM-54 combination. (Wonder why the Chinese didn't go for the bigger, ASM-ready Su-32 two-seater while they were at it?)
Taiwan and Japan both possess "unsinkable aircraft carriers" and I don't think the Japanese would be as urgently challenged by the appearance of Chinese CBG's as the US would be, not while Japan continues to operate F-15J's.