Connecticut is strange. Lieberman has enormous brand value, so he could win by running on the GOP line, just like Bloomberg won in NYC on that line. A lot would depend on who his opponent was, and who would be at the top of the ticket.
You got that right. I would not surprise me at all if the GOP in CT convinced LIEberman to run on the GOP ticket and then claim a victory for the GOP if he won. It would be pure fallacy since LIEberman is tried and true liberal in every way. The only reason he maintains his stand vis-a-vis the military is so that it helps Israel. If he were not a Jew he would be right behind Reid in destroying our military.