Posted on 11/23/2010 7:29:21 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Deliberate or Accidental, a New Korean War Would be Devastating
The soaring modern glass towers of downtown Seoul are magnificent -- and to a North Korean artillery officer squinting through his sights from just 32 miles away, a delicious set of targets. The glistening South Korean capital is a city of glass, almost literally in the shadow of some 500 long-range heavy artillery guns from which North Korea can fire half a million artillery shells an hour, for several hours.
A war on the Korean peninsula could explode almost without warning, senior U.S. military officers say. North Korea's immediate, if suicidal, intent in such a conflict: to demolish Seoul in a blizzard of glass shards and cause tens of thousands of casualties, before U.S. and South Korea forces could react.
That is why millions of people living in Seoul regularly practice scrambling into bomb shelters in subway stations -- and why any disruption in "normal'' relations with the reclusive and unpredictable regime to the north quickly gets the world's attention: a surprise attack from the North, whether deliberate or a miscalculation, would be bloody and costly, and likely would trigger all-out war.
Within hours of North Korea's apparently unprovoked artillery attack on South Korean territory and the South's retaliatory artillery barrage, U.S. officials, diplomats and policy analysts were assuring each other that this was only a "provocation'' by the North. The Obama administration took a rhetorical firm but low-key line on Tuesday, with Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell saying that the North Korean attack was "not, frankly, out of pattern for the North lately."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
Umm, for a change, let’s try to define rationality??? If you want to include things like concern for its people and respect for international law (if there were such a thing), then North Korea flunks.
But if you are talking about regime survivability, Id say North Korea’s regime is more rational than most Western governments- They have gotten more while giving little. The North Koreans are rational because they know they can push the South and the US around.
The problem with many people and to a lesser extent, their governments is that they think that leaders of countries such as North Korea, Myanmar and Iran are crazy. But the fact is that these countries have milked the international system with little effort.
Good point. However, the old man is getting senile, and his son is plain nuts. The generals in North Korea are nuts, too.
I think the “game” has changed. This isn’t brinksmanship. This is insanity.
I'd noted some protests a few years ago over our military presence...
To tell you the truth, I have NO idea how the average South Korean actually regards the current US presence or their opinion about our involvement and sacrifice in preventing their enslavement during the Korean War.
IMO we ought to pull out our military by 75% across the globe. We've been un-compensated and un-appreciated for our trouble.
If this was insanity, the North Koreans would have continued shelling. If this was insanity, they would have sunk more than one South Korean corvette.
North Korea has been very sane on one issue till date-they have calculated that the South won’t escalate.
They’ll assume command because there is a limit which the International community will tolerate N.Korea’s bullying....and this while the world is in economic turmoil....that in itslef has changed the equation.
I don’t think they will integrate N.Korea by much at all...nobody wants to rebuild that nation...and the people are so brainwashed they could not function without a dictator. International leaders are quite aware of the mindset of the people...China would have no difficulty setting up governorship similar to what is there. They certainly don’t want the N.Koreans coming to China...
As a pipsqeak Third World tinhorn dictatorship, "knowing" you can push around the supposed #1 World Power is NOT "rational"; It's "insanity."
That ANY of the world's parasites and crazy dictatorships are able to blackmail producer countries is to the UN's and the US's dis-credit.
What North Korea does defies reason. IMO.
“Japan urgently needs to change, or otherwise find a workaround to, a certain clause in their constitution. With the current occupant in the White House, Japan is on their own, along with a lot of other countries on the Pacific Rim”
All I have to say to that is, “Yup.”
We were the largest contingent by far but there were units of troops from a number of foreign countries fighting along side us--sort of like Iraq and Afghanistan, complete with the pretense of the fight being under the auspices of the UN Security Council.
FootNote: The SC vote was taken on a day when the Russian guy was absent. Otherwise, he would have vetoed the resolution, the Korean War would never have happened, and the whole peninsula would have been communist the whole time thereafter.
Great minds...
The world has pandered to North Korean bullying until now without a whimper. Take a look at the Korea Times and Chosun Ilbo, it’s almost back to business as usual over there.
The only way China would get invovled is if there is a significant breakdown of the power structure in Pyongyang. Otherwise they have a lot to lose economically and strategically.
the world has learned the us response is words and turn the cheek. they know zero is weak and incompetent
Do you know what is insane in the real world-it is when countries like South Korea, Japan, Israel and the US do nothing despite repeated provocations from the likes of Iran and North Korea. They know that the cost of waiting is more deadly but yet they do nothing.
While everything you say is true, the problem is that you are thinking in straight lines.
China plays it’s cards very well...often not laying their hand down until their ducks are in a row as we know. So they won’t be revealing their hand until they have all positioned. Meanwhile meetings and debates can go on for months among the interested...but I do think we will see N.Korea under the sovernity of China..how be it they will arrange leadership which will pretty much be to the people as they are accustomed to.
China will not see it in a way of “saving face”...rather they will use this as means of ‘International Co-operation” in order to continue their power moves.
We were the largest contingent by far but there were units of troops from a number of foreign countries fighting along side us--sort of like Iraq and Afghanistan, complete with the pretense of the fight being under the auspices of the UN Security Council.
I think we can draw one conclusion here:
Fighting, bleeding, and dying for the "United Nations" (a misnomer if ever there was such a thing) is NEVER "fought to win" (Exception: WWII.)
A South Korean security analyst suggested that DPRK artillery pieces of calibers 170mm and 240mm "could fire 10,000 rounds per minute to Seoul and its environs." The number of Koksan guns is not publicly reported, but it is reliably reported that North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Large caliber self propelled artillery pieces typically have a sustained rate of fire of between four and eight rounds per minute. This suggests a total rate of fire of artillery alone of between 2,000 and 4,000 rounds per minute. The DPRK's two hundred 240mm MRLS's fire either 12 or 22 rounds, providing a maximum single salvo of no more than 4,400 rounds.
Since it usually takes about ten minutes to reload an MRLS, these systems could fire six salvoes an hour.
Based on the above information, the absolute most the North Koreans would be able to fire at Seoul that first hour, not taking into account any counter-battery fire, is 266,400. Realistically, the rate of fire will likely be about half of this. During this recent artillery duel, the South Korean Air Force responded within four minutes and the South Korean artillery within thirteen minutes. This would likely result in a significant portion of their artillery and rocket launchers being knocked out or forced to relocate before the first hour is up.
Don't get me wrong; an attack on Seoul would be devastating and would result in thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of casualties, but it isn't quite the doomsday scenario that this article suggests.
Why does he look so stupid when he “eats” an ice cream cone? Looks like he’s trying to shove the whole thing into his mouth - look at how his neck is stretching. What a DORK!
Well the last report was the leadership, under Kim, are all shaking in their shoes as he's removing any who will stand in the way of being fully co-operative when his son takes control. The oldsters are being thrown out. Kim-hu wants devoted and young followers. Remember Kim did the same thing when he took over...they got rid of the "Old guard". So there is some instability going on currently presently...and we can be certain China is watching and a part of that....
Fighting, bleeding, and dying for the “United Nations” (a misnomer if ever there was such a thing) is NEVER “fought to win” (Exception: WWII.)
That my FRiend (the story in the picture) is the definition of ‘unfair’.
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