Posted on 11/22/2010 10:44:16 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
And they worry about Sarah Palin looking Presidential because she’s starring in her Alaska show??? Holy Cow!!!
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Yeonpyeong - Navy Notes 24 Hours Later
As of this post it has been 24 hours since the artillery shells were fired by North Korea onto the island of Yeonpyeong. Noteworthy developments:
The USS George Washington (CVN 73) and escorts have deployed from Japan. Interesting to note, there were some Japanese Navy vessels deployed over the last 24 hours as well. As you might imagine, the ports in South Korea are largely empty as a great deal of the South Korean Navy has put to sea.
There are no solid numbers, but some news organizations are reporting well over 50 major warships from the United States, Japan, and South Korea currently moving towards the maritime regions surrounding the Korean Peninsula. This would constitute the largest assembly of international naval firefare since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. I’m sure China is pleased to see this massive armada on their lawn.
Asahi Shimbun (Japanese media) is now reporting there were 5 North Korean Mig-23s seen on the North Korean side of the border just prior to artillery fire began, and South Korea was tracking them on the South Korean side with F-15s. Neither the Migs nor F-15s apparently crossed their respective border, nor were involved in the battle at Yeonpyeong island.
There appear to be a few security holes somewhere in the US National Security information loop, because very credible sources have reported the first US ISR on the scene over Yeonpyeong was UAVs launched from the USS Jimmy Carter (SSN 23). While I appreciate the idea that leaking submarine activity might be part of a well orchestrated information campaign against North Korea (North Korea couldn’t detect the USS Jimmy Carter short of using a minefield, even if they used every sonar in their entire inventory), I don’t think that is actually the reason for the leak.
Inside the loop, information has become nearly impossible as things have gone dark across the Pacific all the way to Diego Garcia, but from talking to civilians today there was a lot of praise for PACOM and specifically ADM Willard, who according to my sources was the first major player among all the players engaged in the events unfolding. There was also quite a bit of good things said all the way around about 7th Fleet today.
The background for the photo in this blog post can be found here.
I do not rule out the use of military power in response to this attack, but do not expect it. If so it will come from South Korea. I think the US will do exactly what they did following the Cheonan attack - shift the pressure China. I think it is pretty clear the inability of China to address North Korean following the Cheonan incident cost China considerable credibility in the region this year. In this case, things are less ambiguous in the public, so China will either step up or be discredited by virtually every nation in the region as irresponsible and unworthy of being a regional leader.
The problem with this approach is the US could turn this into a US-China political game, and South Korea may not see that approach as being in their best interest. I don’t think that means they take military action, but there were South Korean homes burning on TV from a military attack from the North all day yesterday. Doing nothing in the eyes of the public is less risky a political response as doing something, although we won’t know the cost of doing nothing until the markets close.
As always, the North might do something stupid. One would think not, but I wouldn’t have believed they would shell a neighborhood either had you asked me yesterday. Apparently they really will do anything given the time and space - and that’s the tough issue. For the record, the crop this year in North Korea was reported to be a disaster, so North Korea is in need of food aid this winter.
Posted by Galrahn at 12:34 AM
South Korea TV says bodies of two civilians found on island hit by N. Korean artillery shells
First civilian casualties
Thats going to ramp up the political pressure isnt it? Its one thing for ROK troops being killed, but civilians killed by a NK attack will surely put more pressure on Lee?
Still, so far it seems retaliation is in the form of having some drills and not giving aid. Sounds kinda familiar...
same question TLR - do you think this changes the equation at all for Pres. Lee? Obviously, I would think, the chorus from the Korean editorials is only going to get louder, and the political fallout can’t be underestimated, but does this change anything?
Right. No retaliation means certain political death of Lee Myung-bak. It does not matter whether he cannot do it due to external pressure(from U.S. or China) or not. No action will simply kill him, due, in significant part, to the fact that he has not been resolute enough on security matters in the past. Karma catching up to him.
Thanks for updates.
There will be a lot more pressure and outrage. TV coverage of the funerals of civilians killed by a NK attack will have a big impact.
Will it change the equation to a degree that there will be military action against the North? No, I don’t think so.
Interesting idea: NK is short of cash and is playing the derivative market with big gains when they control dips on the market due to attacks.
http://news.mt.co.kr/mtview.php?no=2010112413127046927
You’re kidding, right? You DO realize that it’s ALL in Korean, yes?
Buy on the dips!
http://eng.krx.co.kr/ They are still a little bit shaky, but I guess that KOSPI will recover tomorrow.
I wonder if a Naval embargo would be the way to go. That way, North Korea could only conduct business via China. And with that would come the US/South Korea/Japan/UN pressure for China to reign in it’s boy.
But with an embargo, it makes it so China can really hurt North Korea, what with all other forms of transit denied.
Plus, it would divert the North Korean leadership’s attention away from it’s ground forces, where their numerical superiority provides them an advantage... to the sea, where we have the upper hand.
That, and if the combat is at sea, it’s not going to involve much in the way of attacks on civilians (unless a fishing boat somehow sneaks in the middle of a naval flotilla).
Right. However, I suspect the guy who originally made request is of Korean descent or at least speaks Korean well.
An interesting angle. Who knows?
“Russia called for both sides to avoid any escalation of violence, while China, the North’s closest international ally, said it was “concerned” over the situation.”
“We hope the relevant parties do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula,” said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, adding that China was still seeking information on the clash. “The situation needs to be verified,” he said.
No condemnation from China. They are merely “concerned.” They don`t even acknowledge the shelling happened. Just as I said yesterday,,,China isn`t going to do squat because their mad dog is too much of a thorn in our side for them to put a leash on it. China does`nt care if their mad dog has nukes,,,this incident won`t even make them bat an eye.
The article goes on to say SoKo caused the incident. So the meme of the media will be that SoKo got what they asked for.
They have plans to shell Taiwan when the time comes, so it would be hypocritical of them to criticize North Korea for shelling South Korea.
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