"While the current analysis ignores evidence of more than three shots from more than one location, I can make only a limited departure from reality in working under the Commission’s postulations."
Here's what is a likely scenario, and keep in mind that this is how I perceive the event and what the evidence shows. It also includes a possible solution to why the scope was so far off even for the Warren Comission marksmen. And I didn't 'cut and paste' some theory as you did.
Oswald fires the first shot using the scope attached. It misses due to being dropped in the bushes after taking a shot at Gen. Edwin Walker previously. James Teague is caught by shrapnel from this round at the overpass. We can identify this shot from Zapruder Frame 194 and 195. Zapruder had vertigo, and his secretary had to support him. The camera shakes at the sound of gunshots. Also look at the little girl in the upper right. In previous frames she is running but stops to look at the TSBD. Following frames show Kennedy reacting in the car as it goes behind the sign.
Frame 194
Oswald works the bolt again realizing the scope has failed, but it is side mounted and the iron sights are available. He lines up on the base of Kennedy's head and fires. He sees the round strike at the neck to the right. He doesn't realize that Connaly has also been hit, his concentration is on Kennedy. This shot, at frame 225, bears this out. Look at Connalys shirt and the difference between Frames 224 and 225. Also notice that Kennedy and Connaly react to that hit.
Frame 224
He works the bolt again. Due to the slope of Elm at this point, Kennedy is almost in a straight line with the vehicle going slightly downhill. It is a straight shot with little perceivable movement except the target getting smaller. Oswald settles in and fires again striking Kennedy in the right portion of the head.
Frame 313
And all that in 6.5 seconds.
Now the two critical points here are, the failure of the scope, and the two remaining hits to the right of target. Check his scorebook. Oswald was fully capable.
Oswald Scorebook, Warren Commison CE239
ANY competitive shooter, be it rifle or pistol will tell you 6.5 seconds is a long time for just 3 shots. As a former IPSC competitor, 6 seconds is an enormous amount of time for 3 shots.
Oswald from the TSBD with 3 shots.
And what many overlook is the 6.5 seconds commenced at the sound of the first shot, so Oswald in effect had roughly 6 seconds to fire the remaining two shots.