This is the part that is bugging me, but I can't put my finger on it with images.
What would the shadow and light of the contrail from a plane look like when it flies parallel to the ground, vs. what would the shadow and light of the contrail from a missile look like when it flies perpendicular to the ground?
Different surfaces of the contrail would reflect the setting sun. If the object were moving parallel to the east, I would expect to see the contrail darken as the airplane moved away from the setting sun and into the shadow of the earth. If the object were climbing perpendicular straight up, I would expect to see the contrail stay lit, or even brighten, as the missile climbs back into more direct sunlight. Also, look how dark the cloud in the foreground is, showing where shadow has already reached.
Thoughts?
-PJ
Why is it that the first, widest, and (for a missile) lowest altitude part of the "plume" is -- well after sunset -- still the most brightly illuminated part of the "plume"?
The obvious answer is:
"BECAUSE IT IS AT 35K+ FOOT ALTITUDE, IS THE ONLY THING STILL ILLUMINATED BY FULL SUNLIGHT -- AND IS THE CONTRAIL OF AN AIRCRAFT APPROACHING (COMING TOWARD YOU) AT THAT ALTITUDE FROM OVER THE HORIZON (HAWAII)..."
>>What would the shadow and light of the contrail from a plane look like when it flies parallel to the ground, vs. what would the shadow and light of the contrail from a missile look like when it flies perpendicular to the ground?<<
That is one of the things that convinced me this is a contrail. You notice in the op snapshot that there is a dark streak just “above” the contrail that goes all the way to the right alongside the contrail. This is what happens when the clouds (and in this case, clouds and haze) at one level is below the contrail. Because both are parallel to the earth, you get a shadow that looks like the contrail’s reverse image mate. In this case, the clouds are not all that much lower than the contrail, so the shadow is close. I’ve seen situations where the shadow was in a layer of clouds far lower than the contrail and there is a significant gap, but the contrail and shadow are always parallel, as in this case.
If it were a missile launch, it COULD be parallel, depending on the angle of the sun in relation to your viewing angle, but generally speaking the shadow is usually not parallel and can range from parallel to perpendicular to the plume. It also adjusts in shape based on altitude.
I’m making it too complicated. Sorry...
An experienced retired misilleer who is a fairly longtime FReeper stated from the git-go that the object in the video looks like a missile, and it looks like it's headed west-northwest. Then folks pointed out that talking heads have said that the camerman said he "stayed on it" for ten minutes, although the cameraman (who stated unequivocally in an interview taped the day after the event that the object was heading "in a westerly direction") quite reasonably could have filmed the event AND the lingering plume for a total of 10 minutes. Old Missileer, being a pro with no agenda, noted that if the cameraman filmed it for 10 minutes, it couldn't be a missile because such a missile could only burn for about five minutes. It woud be interesting to see if the complete video shows the object moving for a duration of 10 minutes.
OldMissiler also FReeped, a few days after the launch: I would like to point out, and tell me if I am seeing it wrong, but many here have stated that it was a flight to Arizona. Given the position of the setting sun and the angle to which it reflects off the contrail would not the object in question be flying WNW or somewhat North? I thought Phoenix was to the Southeast from there (to the left of the video).
This sort of thing happens every day no matter where you are. Low altitude clouds go black while high altitude clouds are still shiny from Sunlight.