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Presidential candidates polling data two years out are historically meaningless!
Friday November 12, 2010

Posted on 11/12/2010 4:39:34 PM PST by Bigtigermike

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1 posted on 11/12/2010 4:39:39 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

Huh? You mean to tell me these predictions I have for Superbowl 47 aren’t valid?


2 posted on 11/12/2010 4:46:52 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Bigtigermike

I hate ANY story claiming Obama is doomed for 2012, or that he’ll be a one term prez. This far out it is simply idiotic to make such speculation. ANYTHING could happen in the next 2 years.

Remember this, just before Pearl Harbor it was assumed that FDR would not win another term. In 1979 it was widely assumed that Ronald Reagan could not possibly beat Jimmah Carter. Who ever heard of Bill Clinton two years before he miraculously became president?

Seriously. It is a waste of time to predict who will be the next president two long years before the election.


3 posted on 11/12/2010 4:47:40 PM PST by Mobile Vulgus
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To: Bigtigermike

“Presidential candidates polling data two years out are historically meaningless!”

No $h!t Sherlock!


4 posted on 11/12/2010 4:52:48 PM PST by caver (Obama: Home of the Whopper)
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To: caver

I was just making a point to all of these FReepers who run around ,especially PDSers who like to run Palin polling data to prove a point


5 posted on 11/12/2010 4:56:27 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

Johnny Depp / Britney Spears 2012!!!!


6 posted on 11/12/2010 4:56:50 PM PST by workerbee (We're not scared, Maobama -- we're pissed off!)
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To: Bigtigermike

I know. Just agreeing with you!


7 posted on 11/12/2010 4:57:25 PM PST by caver (Obama: Home of the Whopper)
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To: Bigtigermike

Yep, certain polls are being run out today to see how well “Stop Sarah Week” has done in pulling her down.


8 posted on 11/12/2010 5:01:18 PM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: bigbob

Wait a minute...I just read a post by pissant that has over 150 comments saying Sarah Palin has HIGH NEGATIVES.

Did you hear me...HIGH NEGATIVES!

From a Gallup Poll!

Now you tell me to disregard polls this far out??

Maybe you should tell pissant...


9 posted on 11/12/2010 5:27:30 PM PST by t-dude
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To: Jim Robinson; Syncro; Fiddlstix; Virginia Ridgerunner; Bigtigermike; TitansAFC; Al B.; Clyde5445; ..

Why such a concentrated assault on Sarah Palin *this week*?

Hmmm. Could it be that SARAH PALIN’S ALAKSA debuts *this Sunday* on TLC (a family friendly cable station) and that previously held negative opinions of her instilled by the lamestream might undergo a dramatic reversal?


10 posted on 11/12/2010 5:30:20 PM PST by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: onyx
Sarah "connects" with the real Conservative American. Mainly because she, herself, IS a Real Conservative American.
The MSM can't figure that out. The "good old boy" network can't figure that out.
Too bad for them.
She has touched the hearts and minds of the real conservative American people.
The more her "enemies" try to attack her, the more they "shine the light" on her.
In her case, any and all publicity is "good" publicity (for her).
LOL on them.
11 posted on 11/12/2010 5:55:35 PM PST by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: t-dude
Pissant isn't wrong, however, she does have high negatives. In the era of cable news and over saturation, that's tough to turn around.

I'll give a more recent example, in the fall of 1998 George W. Bush was 5% ahead of Al Gore in a Gallup poll, by October 2000 he was... 5% ahead of Al Gore in the Gallup poll. Only after the knee capping DUI report the Thursday before the election did that tighten.

Gore had high negatives through out that limited his up side potential, same as Sarah Palin. It's better to be unknown than to be disliked (Carter 1974). It's not just polling, I know people, lots of them who will NEVER vote for Sarah Palin, their minds are made up. She could run the greatest campaign ever, wouldn't matter.

If she's the nominee I'll vote for her and do my best to talk others into voting for her, but she'll lose.

I expect Obama will be beatable in 2012, I want a conservative against him who can win.

12 posted on 11/12/2010 5:57:14 PM PST by jpf (me in 2012.)
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To: jpf

Her negatives are not as high as Reagan’s were two years out.

Two years is a lifetime in politics.

Just keep an open mind. She hasn’t done anything polarizing other than be the victim of the largest media smear in history.

Her numbers are rising, and I agree she has a hill to climb, but it’s not that big. (especially for someone with her political instincts)

Just keep an open mind, and don’t be too surprised when it happens...


13 posted on 11/12/2010 6:08:47 PM PST by t-dude
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To: Bigtigermike

So ... without having read the article yet ... I’m guessing you’re pissed because Palin isn’t polling well?


14 posted on 11/12/2010 6:10:57 PM PST by r9etb
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To: jpf

That is pure and utter projecturing! Sarah could run the greatest campaign and some will never vote for her? saved liberals and those who like a women as a President.....please! If you bring out Gore, he was a wooden character that never projected well on TV compared to Bush, I reneged those focus groups.


15 posted on 11/12/2010 6:15:17 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: jpf

That is pure and utter projecturing! Sarah could run the greatest campaign and some will never vote for her? saved liberals and those who like a women as a President.....please! If you bring out Gore, he was a wooden character that never projected well on TV compared to Bush, I reneged those focus groups.


16 posted on 11/12/2010 6:15:17 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: t-dude

Look through the threads pissant starts. He starts at least two “Palin Can’t Win” threads per day. I have repeatedly asked pissant who he would like to see as the nominee in 2012. He has yet to reply. It likely has something to do with his love of everything RINO/establishment including socialism lite.


17 posted on 11/12/2010 6:20:43 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: r9etb

Nope......polls don’t matter one way or the other, good or bad for Sarah. No one has yet to prove to me in modern times where polling data before anyone actually run a campaign means anything, Mitt has done very little other than fundraising and endorsments and stayed out of the spotlight and yet he is polling very high for no reason.........and I do wish that some here on FR would read these threads instead of commenting


18 posted on 11/12/2010 6:21:20 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

I seem to recall that W polled very well. Certainly he’d locked up the big-name support and plenty of money, very early on.


19 posted on 11/12/2010 6:50:40 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Bigtigermike
Mitt has done very little other than fundraising and endorsments and stayed out of the spotlight and yet he is polling very high for no reason.......

Not "no reason." He's got good name recognition, is good looking, speaks well, and seems reasonable when he speaks. That's enough, at this point, for him to poll well.

20 posted on 11/12/2010 6:55:07 PM PST by r9etb
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