Presidential Power Rankings (MEGA BARF ALERT)

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/presidential-power-rankings-20101109 ^ | Tuesday, November 9, 2010 | 7:00 a.m. | nobody put his name on this...lol.

[onyx]

The Hotline assesses which potential White House contenders are most likely to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Welcome to The Hotline’s inaugural edition of Presidential Power Rankings.

Who is best positioned to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination? Find out here, where we rank the top 15 GOP contenders using a formula that answers a simple question: Who is currently in the strongest position to secure the nomination? Our criteria:

1.Money: How much do they have? How much can they raise?

2.Campaign infrastructure: Do they have the ability to assemble a competitive and competent staff, both at the national and state levels?

3.Strengths: What issue(s) can the candidate truly hang their hat on? Is there a specific area of expertise they can sell to voters? Do they have a strong track record on one particular issue?

4.Weaknesses: Every candidate has one -- heck, most candidates have plenty -- and the reality is that eventually they will have to address them. This will be easier for some contenders than others: Explaining away one vote for bad legislation is far easier than justifying a major moral lapse or some fatally flawed executive decision. At the end of the day, some candidates will have weaknesses, and others will have albatrosses. It’s the latter group who should be worried.

Check back frequently for updates as the 2012 presidential contest gets under way.

The A-List Tier

1. MITT ROMNEY

The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He's got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.

2. TIM PAWLENTY

Like Romney, Pawlenty is acting like a traditional candidate, putting together the staff and resources necessary to jump in with both feet. He’s certainly got the executive experience and conservative credentials, but early reviews of his public appearances make us wonder whether he's exciting enough to inspire a primary audience. Our burning question: Does “Minnesota Nice” play in presidential primary politics?

3. JOHN THUNE

He’s young, presidential-looking, and in tune with the base – all of which endears him to primary crowds. He has the smarts and savvy to go with battle-tested campaign skills (see: Daschle, Tom). Is John Thune in 2010 what Barack Obama was in 2006? Not yet – but if primary voters are looking for a fresh face to lead the GOP into a new, conservative era, Thune could be the guy. His biggest vulnerability is his 2008 vote for TARP, an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.

4. HALEY BARBOUR

Many believe Barbour is the best tactician, and one of the best politicians, in the Republican Party. His tenure at the Republican Governors Association was a virtually unqualified success, and he can claim credit for down-ballot wins, too. But as the Mississippian himself points out, he's a lawyer, a lobbyist, and a politician – three strikes in an atmosphere that distains the establishment.

The Fox News Tier

5. MIKE HUCKABEE

Whether Huckabee is serious about running or just wants his name out there to make money is an unsolved mystery. But no one should underestimate the most charismatic man in the field. He won Iowa once, he can do it again. Still, fiscal conservatives don’t like Huck, and he’ll have to answer for releasing a criminal who murdered four police officers in Washington state late last year.

6. SARAH PALIN

As with Huckabee, we question Palin's intentions. We’d take her potential candidacy more seriously if she weren’t banking millions from books, speaking engagements, and reality shows. Is she only keeping her name in the 2012 conversation to stay relevant? One thing is for sure: Palin has a stronger connection to an ascendant base than any other candidate. But if she's serious about running, she will need to assemble precisely the sort of traditional campaign she has eschewed in the past.

7. NEWT GINGRICH

Newt is greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends, and the activist class claims he's the party’s sharpest policy mind. But he has flirted with an Oval Office run in the past without making the leap, which makes us wary of taking him too seriously. Making book-tour stops in Iowa only sells more books – it doesn't get him any delegates. If he does run, his banter about anti-colonialism, food stamps, and Hitler will make it hard for him to tack back to the middle if he were to secure the nomination.

8. MIKE PENCE

The surprise winner at the Values Voter Summit straw poll is serious about running, given his decision to withdraw from his House leadership post. But is he running for president or for governor of Indiana? His speech this month at the Detroit Economic Club indicates the former. Pence connects with tea party voters, but any House member faces a tough climb if he wants to run for the White House.

The Governor / VP / '16 Tier

9. MITCH DANIELS

Indiana's successful two-term governor is getting the kind of early buzz any White House contender would kill for. But his decision to call for a “truce” on social issues, which angered social conservatives, put him on the wrong side of a key constituency before his campaign even began. While he’s been meeting with GOP power players to map out a potential run, Daniels has also been unusually honest about the fact that toying with a White House run is a great way to stay relevant.

10. CHRIS CHRISTIE

He’s the Republican flavor of the moment, thanks to high-profile battles with New Jersey teachers unions and Trenton Democrats. But the charismatic former prosecutor has spent the last two months finding a thousand different ways to promise that he’s not running. A draft movement will have to be very persuasive – and incredibly well-funded – to have a shot.

11. RICK PERRY

The thrice-elected Texas governor maintains he is uninterested in living in Washington, but a national book tour and his unabashed courtship of tea party conservatives hints otherwise. Bringing up the 10th Amendment during his tough primary bid was a smart move, and it solidified his place among a segment of GOP-primary voters who may prove essential to deciding the 2012 nominee.

12. BOBBY JINDAL

We believe the Louisiana governor is a more likely candidate in 2016 than he is in 2012, but he remains a man to watch in the upcoming cycle. Jindal has to run for reelection in 2011, giving him at most a three-month turnaround before Iowa voters caucus. Still, Jindal has a noted policy mind and an impeccable record of fiscal conservatism. He's a player, even if only for vice president.

The Tea Party Tier

13. RICK SANTORUM

Santorum has been quietly interviewing potential staffers and is beginning to pile the few eggs he has into the Iowa basket, hoping the stars align and voters are so divided between top-tier candidates that he can pull a Huckabee and carry the conservative vote. Sure, he's a long shot, but the only candidate who unabashedly entered the 2004 contest so early was Howard Dean, who went from obscurity to front-runner before falling flat.

14. JIM DEMINT

DeMint has been forward in claiming credit for conservative primary victories over establishment favorites, and he's no stranger to bashing his own party when it's not conservative enough for his taste, something that's popular with the base. But he's equally insistent that he won't be running in 2012, and he's made no moves that suggest he isn't being honest. If he runs, DeMint would be a force to be reckoned with – but he's ranked here for now because of the magnitude of that "if."

15. R. PAUL

In 2008, Ron Paul was little more than a sideshow. He generated big crowds and unparalleled excitement, but was unable to convert that grassroots energy into the votes needed to compete in key early states. Suddenly, Paul's message is a lot more popular – so much so that his son is an incoming senator from Kentucky. Who's the messenger for that message in 2012? Ron? Rand?

On the bubble: John Cornyn, Gary Johnson, Bob McDonnell, George Pataki, Marco Rubio

 

[Joann37]

#14, DeMint, would be just fine with me!

[onyx]

The A-List Tier

1. MITT ROMNEY

The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He's got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.

2. TIM PAWLENTY

Like Romney, Pawlenty is acting like a traditional candidate, putting together the staff and resources necessary to jump in with both feet. He’s certainly got the executive experience and conservative credentials, but early reviews of his public appearances make us wonder whether he's exciting enough to inspire a primary audience. Our burning question: Does “Minnesota Nice” play in presidential primary politics?

3. JOHN THUNE

He’s young, presidential-looking, and in tune with the base – all of which endears him to primary crowds. He has the smarts and savvy to go with battle-tested campaign skills (see: Daschle, Tom). Is John Thune in 2010 what Barack Obama was in 2006? Not yet – but if primary voters are looking for a fresh face to lead the GOP into a new, conservative era, Thune could be the guy. His biggest vulnerability is his 2008 vote for TARP, an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.

4. HALEY BARBOUR

Many believe Barbour is the best tactician, and one of the best politicians, in the Republican Party. His tenure at the Republican Governors Association was a virtually unqualified success, and he can claim credit for down-ballot wins, too. But as the Mississippian himself points out, he's a lawyer, a lobbyist, and a politician – three strikes in an atmosphere that distains the establishment.

The Fox News Tier

5. MIKE HUCKABEE

Whether Huckabee is serious about running or just wants his name out there to make money is an unsolved mystery. But no one should underestimate the most charismatic man in the field. He won Iowa once, he can do it again. Still, fiscal conservatives don’t like Huck, and he’ll have to answer for releasing a criminal who murdered four police officers in Washington state late last year.

6. SARAH PALIN

As with Huckabee, we question Palin's intentions. We’d take her potential candidacy more seriously if she weren’t banking millions from books, speaking engagements, and reality shows. Is she only keeping her name in the 2012 conversation to stay relevant? One thing is for sure: Palin has a stronger connection to an ascendant base than any other candidate. But if she's serious about running, she will need to assemble precisely the sort of traditional campaign she has eschewed in the past.

7. NEWT GINGRICH

Newt is greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends, and the activist class claims he's the party’s sharpest policy mind. But he has flirted with an Oval Office run in the past without making the leap, which makes us wary of taking him too seriously. Making book-tour stops in Iowa only sells more books – it doesn't get him any delegates. If he does run, his banter about anti-colonialism, food stamps, and Hitler will make it hard for him to tack back to the middle if he were to secure the nomination.

8. MIKE PENCE

The surprise winner at the Values Voter Summit straw poll is serious about running, given his decision to withdraw from his House leadership post. But is he running for president or for governor of Indiana? His speech this month at the Detroit Economic Club indicates the former. Pence connects with tea party voters, but any House member faces a tough climb if he wants to run for the White House.

The Governor / VP / '16 Tier

9. MITCH DANIELS

Indiana's successful two-term governor is getting the kind of early buzz any White House contender would kill for. But his decision to call for a “truce” on social issues, which angered social conservatives, put him on the wrong side of a key constituency before his campaign even began. While he’s been meeting with GOP power players to map out a potential run, Daniels has also been unusually honest about the fact that toying with a White House run is a great way to stay relevant.

10. CHRIS CHRISTIE

He’s the Republican flavor of the moment, thanks to high-profile battles with New Jersey teachers unions and Trenton Democrats. But the charismatic former prosecutor has spent the last two months finding a thousand different ways to promise that he’s not running. A draft movement will have to be very persuasive – and incredibly well-funded – to have a shot.

11. RICK PERRY

The thrice-elected Texas governor maintains he is uninterested in living in Washington, but a national book tour and his unabashed courtship of tea party conservatives hints otherwise. Bringing up the 10th Amendment during his tough primary bid was a smart move, and it solidified his place among a segment of GOP-primary voters who may prove essential to deciding the 2012 nominee.

12. BOBBY JINDAL

We believe the Louisiana governor is a more likely candidate in 2016 than he is in 2012, but he remains a man to watch in the upcoming cycle. Jindal has to run for reelection in 2011, giving him at most a three-month turnaround before Iowa voters caucus. Still, Jindal has a noted policy mind and an impeccable record of fiscal conservatism. He's a player, even if only for vice president.

The Tea Party Tier

13. RICK SANTORUM

Santorum has been quietly interviewing potential staffers and is beginning to pile the few eggs he has into the Iowa basket, hoping the stars align and voters are so divided between top-tier candidates that he can pull a Huckabee and carry the conservative vote. Sure, he's a long shot, but the only candidate who unabashedly entered the 2004 contest so early was Howard Dean, who went from obscurity to front-runner before falling flat.

14. JIM DEMINT

DeMint has been forward in claiming credit for conservative primary victories over establishment favorites, and he's no stranger to bashing his own party when it's not conservative enough for his taste, something that's popular with the base. But he's equally insistent that he won't be running in 2012, and he's made no moves that suggest he isn't being honest. If he runs, DeMint would be a force to be reckoned with – but he's ranked here for now because of the magnitude of that "if."

15. R. PAUL

In 2008, Ron Paul was little more than a sideshow. He generated big crowds and unparalleled excitement, but was unable to convert that grassroots energy into the votes needed to compete in key early states. Suddenly, Paul's message is a lot more popular – so much so that his son is an incoming senator from Kentucky. Who's the messenger for that message in 2012? Ron? Rand?

On the bubble: John Cornyn, Gary Johnson, Bob McDonnell, George Pataki, Marco Rubio

 

[Theodore R.]

The absolutely most far-fetched of all may not be Newton Gingrich but that awful John Cornyn.

[SoConPubbie]

Well, we knew the Leftist, Progressives, Marxists et all would be engaging in this type of behavior to do their best to marginalize Sarah.

Too bad there are so many JackAsses on our side that take sport in spreading the negative crap that they do to do the same thing.

Evil people, all of them.

Not because they are against my preferred candidate, because of the character of their actions.

You see their candidates lose in a straight-up fight on the issues and just general worthiness in a fair fight with Sarah.

So, because they can’t win that way, the wallow in the dirt.

She’ll still win.

There’s not an ounce of giving-up in that girl’s soul!

[TomasUSMC]

Which of those has been in the military?

[pissant]

If this was all the choices, and it ain’t, #14 is tops, followed by #8, then #4, then #12.

Mike Rounds and John Bolton and Duncan Hunter should be added to the list.

[ari-freedom]

I’m not sure I’d be so crazy for Mitch Daniels anymore and not just because of a “social truce.” But hopefully there will be lots of other talented people and a vigorous debate!

[ntnychik]

Take George Pataki...please! Alphonse D’Amato must have put him on this list.

Tim Pawlenty’s Minnesota Nice gave us Senator Franken. Anyone who doesn’t take vote fraud seriously won’t be taken seriously by me.

As if the Republicans should choose the candidate that would make the media glow with approval.

[Sarah Barracuda]

One should really wonder how come the media keeps on kissing Romney’s ass and smearing Sarah Palin. Does anyone think for a second that the progressive media gives a crap about the Republican party and wanting them to win..if anyone does I got a bridge to sell ya LOL..The media keeps on kissing Romney’s behind because its Romney who is the guy who can be easily beat. Some people want to keep on spewing the whole idea that it is Sarah Palin who is unelectable, NO, its really Romney who is the one that is unelectable and the media knows it. Romney created RomneyCare, and if the same people who were against Obamacare love Romney, that just says a lot doesn’t it, because Romney care IS Obamacare. Remember this people, the media is telling you time and time again who can REALLY beat Obama and its not Mitt Romney

[onyx]

Mike Pence in the Fox News Tier and Sarah Palin is NOT in the TEA PARTY Tier?

This is both laughable and worthy of the mega barf alert!

[pissant]

Rick Perry is the only one. An Air Force Captain, and C-130 pilot.

[onyx]

Exactly. Never again. Not this time. Not in 2012 and *that’s* a certainty.

[paul51]

my early bet would have to be pence/rubio or perhaps thune/rubio

[pissant]

She ain’t even gonna run.

[max americana]

AW Gawd, not the same ole MSMvomitron pick of Romney all over again...

[The Cajun]

Just think, we have nearly 2 years of this crap to put up with and it will get worse.
Right now I'm saying Palin/Demint and the hell with everybody else and the Rino horses they rode in on.

[onyx]

Romney is a certain loser. rommeycare and obamacare. 2012 is all about repealing obamacare and appointing strict ConstitutionalistS to SCOTUS and the federal benches. Young ONES.

[ari-freedom]

2010 could be the first time that the GOP could nominate someone who never served in the military, not even in the National guard.

[onyx]

Bet very small.