I’m only comparing the two most recent mid-term Senate races in PA. Obviously turnout is much higher in Presidential years and the margin in Philly will be too. Obama’s margin in 2008 was 478K, for example. John Kerry’s was 412K in 2004. Toomey will have a much tougher challenge winning in 2016 when there will be Presidential election also on the ballot. Whoever he faces, his fate will still rest on competing hard for votes in the Philly suburbs and in Western PA.
Yes, BO's margin over McCain was about 620 K and Bob Casey Jr. had an even easier cakewalk over Rick Santorum, but that was before people knew what was inside these packages.
Toomey can do us a great deal of good in six years. I'm not even sure he will run for re-election in 2016. The man had proven he can make a good living and promote good economic policies outside of politics.