Good article, with good military analogies. Where it breaks down is in this statement. If Hitler had not attacked Russia and had to divide his forces, he would have been able to repel any invasion of Europe, no matter the logistics brought to bear against him.
On the hand, the prime motive for Operation Barbarossa was the German need for oil.
Hitler's Quest for Oil: the Impact of Economic Considerations on Military Strategy, 1941-42
An oil-starved Germany would have held on, maybe into the late 1940's, while U.S. and British seapower cut off it's supplies of imported food and materiel and while U.S. and British airpower dispersed it's industry to less efficient cottage factories and disrupted all transportation infrastructure.
Eventually, although not in 1945, Germany would have withered on the dried up vine and gone down to defeat.
In the end, it still all boils down to logistics.