Where do you think people who bet on INTRADE get their information?
I’d like to see a scientific analysis of the polling this time around. Rasmussen has received a lot of praise from Fox News for having nailed the 2008 election, but they booted some of these races, badly. Whenever the polls are so wildly different than the actual outcome our first inclination is to cry “vote fraud!” but the simpler explanation is that the polls were simply wrong, and we allowed ourselves to believe them.
Good call. The simplest explanation is ALMOST ALWAYS the correct explanation.