I saw a poster somewhere, think it was FR, who was a DE resident, and they said, to make it short, that the dem machine there has been in control for so long that eligible dem voters tend to take results for granted, a kind of voter entitlement mentality. This helps Christine, as the more convinced DE dems are that someone else will get to the polls if they don’t, the more likely it is that good Republican turnout will win the day for Christine. The polls don’t take these factors into account, so they are likely very misleading. Let not your heart be troubled.
Brices Crossroads is one who isn’t from DE but who has been writing long, detailed and well-written analyses of why Christine will win. Delawhere, outofstyle, fishtalk, onyx, exit82 are also giving good analysis some from the ground there. They all seem to expect at least a good chance of victory.
I will say that I’ve been a Christine supporter for a long time, and most if not all of the above have been there for Christine pre primary. I can’t think of anyone who was there strongly for Christine pre primary who doesn’t at least think she has a real good chance to win. I think she’ll win. A lot of others on the above list think she’ll win.
Statewide elections are rarely very close. I don’t think either party really wants to work very hard. And Castle and Carper, with “the swap”. So I really don’t think that the Dems are really all that good with the GOTV. In PA, the D’s need massive numbers out of Philly to win, and that’s pretty much every time. So they know what they’re doing to achieve that, or to try to. In DE, I just don’t know that they have those skills, that knowledge.