Raese is gonna be the new guy. Sarah is betting her time on it!
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Posted on 10/31/2010 7:28:07 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
I don’t get this change in the polls. I was standing in line at the courthouse in Huntington WV the other day (to pay taxes) - I heard the two men in front of me talking. One of them said he had been a registered Democrat his whole life, but he would never vote Democrat again. The other man agreed.
The man behind me told me his house was being foreclosed and he was having to cash in his 401K - he was ticked off too. Everyone there was furious at ALL levels of government - there were several business owners in line, one said they were barely hanging on & they saw people swiping food stamp cards to buy T-bone steaks, while they were having to buy macaroni and cheese.
There’s a palpable anger rising up among hard-working people - I just don’t see Manchin winning there.
“Did these pollsters allow for enthusiasm? Wasn’t Scott Brown down 9 in Massachusetts?”
Brown was down 9 about a month before the election. By the last week, he was ahead in all the polls. The polling turned out to be very accurate in that case.
“They were wrong about Hoffman, Christie, Burns.”
Hoffman - that was a weird race, kind of like Alaska or Florida now. I wouldn’t criticize the pollsters on that one.
Christie - most polls had Christie slightly ahead at the end. There was one university poll that was way off.
Burns - the polls underestimated Democratic turnout, which we hope they are not doing now.
As, I stated earlier, the PPP model in this poll is not terribly off of where the electorate appears to be right now. If you make the adjustments, you’re at Manchin +2 or +3.
PPP has D at 54%, Early voting was 55% D.
PPP has R at 34%, Early voting was 36% R.
PPP has I at 11%, Early voting was 10% I.
I haven’t farmed to see where the early votes have come from and if they favor Manchin or Raese.
Don't believe the polls. I know that most of the people don't want Manchin in DC. The Unions do... and so does Bammie!
We’ll see. They think only 43% of the voters will be conservative, 57% moderate/liberal. Seems to me the West Virginia electorate will be quite a bit more conservative, and Raese is winning conservatives handily.
Raese is gonna be the new guy. Sarah is betting her time on it!
-photo/USAToday
Raese has this won and squandered his lead with crappy TV ads. Manchin’s were among the best in the nation. I pray Raese can still pull it out, because otherwise Manchin will be there for the next 50 yrs.
If Manchin wins, it will only be because he has discovered Conservatism. If that really is true, then we have not lost this election, if false, he will be gone in the future.
The good side of this election is that he has finally understood his mistakes and hopefully won’t make them again.
Of course the bad side is that he is a false prophet and he will again go along with the Democrats. His choice, but it will be his decision whether to be for his voters or for the Democrats - tough choice. His future is limited to his choices!
Maybe the most we can hope for here is that a bunch of Reagan Republicans and their heirs (namely members of coal miner unions) are reluctant to tell a pollster they intend to vote for the Republican because they are concerned the “pollster” is a Union operative.
49 or 50 Republicans and a few scared Democrats (Nelson, Webb, and maybe more) in the Senate might even be better than a majority of Republicans in both houses. The less Obama can plausibly (plausibly for independents) blame Republicans for the mess he is making the better when the socialist hater of white folks stands for reelection in two years.
Really, why would anyone have thought WV would reject a Democrat for the Senate? They are very predictable people and haven’t said “no” to a Democrat Senate candidate since 1952, I believe it was.
I can’t see a Republican tabulation past 47.
Manchin will show how easily the people of WV can be eternally fooled.
May be... but it will only last for one election cycle if he wins again. Not really sure that he will continue his voting patterns after being shown the door (even visually) - even if he wins. He will have to think deeply about every vote now - instead of being pressured by Pelosi...
I once wrote and article called
Conservatives are from Mars Liberals are from Venus
And that just goes against what I think about coal miners.
Manch is WV’s Crist. A tru Polecat. Wake up you idiots in West Virginia. Whatsa Mattah You.
With the EPA destroying coal jobs, I’d love to see how the West Virginians will rationalize voting for a RAT.
Good point. At least the GOP caucus will be pretty solid, and we will have some excellent new senators like Rubio, Portman, Ayotte, Toomey etc. If the Dems have only 51 or 52 they will be running scared in 2012. GOP should be able to get some “moderates” to side with them. Manchin ought to be among them along with Ben Nelson, as you say. I hadn’t thought of Webb but he already has shown some signs of inching away from the far left of his party. I have not heard who might take him on next time but he ought to be very vulnerable. Hard to believe the 2012 campaign begins Wednesday morning!
They did pick odonnell but they also picked hoffman and have been way off in many other polls including Scott brown. They have a weird formula for determining party turnout. In primary turnout model odonnell race was easier. In regular elections if you estimate rats turnout 2 percent ,ore or rebus 2 percent less changes poll results significantly
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