1)The Dems (Coons) have it in the bag
2)The Dems (Coons)realize that bashing COD only has driven her numbers up and narrowed the gap between her and Coons
3)The MSM is in shock with the projected gains that the GOP could make in the House and Senate
4)The MSM has fired its “wad” or exhausted itself in trying to bring down COD and they are simply out of bullets.
Chris Coons should still win this contest. Quite simply here is what I stated on Sept. 15th, the day after the primary. Here is what I said then:
1)With the registration of Dems over the GOP being ahead by double-digits it definitely favors the Dem candidate regardless who was the candidate.
2)COD got 53% of the vote in the GOP primary-Castle 47%. I said 6 weeks ago that if the Castle supporters en masse remained estranged from COD and were determined to cut off their nose to spite their face she would lose.
In addition the head of the Delaware GOP Tom Ross stated that COD was not worthy enough to be elected dog catcher.
3)The attacks by Rove and Krauthammer against COD after she won the primary would leave its mark.
4)The MSM doing its dirty work on COD (witch, masturbation etc) on behalf of Coons would further her demise.
Then when you add COD not getting much help from the national party you have a prescription for failure, and that has little to do with whether COD is viable or not.
So what has given COD a glimmer of hope:
1)Recent polls by TCJ and TPX show COD only single digits down rather than 20 points early in the general campaign.
2)An endorsement of COD by ex-governor Pete DuPont. For those of you who don’t know the DuPonts are really the “first family” of Delaware.
3)Sarah Palin coming to Delaware today to do a rally for COD.
4)The Meeks episode in Florida which could depress the Black vote in Delaware.
5)The Gawker episode that could influence women to vote for COD out of sympathy and resentment over sexism.
6) And the topic of this thread-Chris Coons own record
But elections always come down to the numbers. Here basically is what has to happen for COD to have any chance to beat Coons:
a)As I suggested the Black vote does not come out for Coons but in addition to that the Dem vote overall stays home (especially in New Castle county) while the GOP and GOP independents come out en masse(enthusiasm gap). Gallup says the gap is +15 for the GOP. Delaware must be close to that imho.
b)COD gets over 85% of the GOP vote and 90% of the conservative vote (overlap of course)
c)Sarah Palin makes the difference and tips the balance.
d)Poor weather depresses the Dem vote
e)anti-Obama voters who don’t particularly like COD come out anyway and vote COD
But if there is one reason that COD has any chance it is that Delaware does NOT allow early voting. I have no hesitation to say if it did COD would be toast. Because the whole campaign is allowed to play out before the vote is taken and COD’s momentum is allowed to have its full impact it is possible that COD could further close the gap by Tuesday.
When it is said and done I do believe COD needs divine intervention to win. But miracles do happen, don’t they?
If she looses, then it will be all we hear about from the waste stream media, if she wins, then we won't hear anything about it from them.