“If O’Donnell is really down 10 points with four days to go, why is 0bie coming again? I’m thinking it’s much closer than that!”
Of course it is, and the Democrats know it. Obama would not be making another visit on Monday if Coons was really 10 points ahead. He is running a bit of a risk IMHO because Coons is in deep trouble and will in all likelihood lose to O’Donnell. I believe that the overthrow of the Establishment in the Primary is going to create an entirely new electorate. Many Delawareans had simply not voted because of the rigged system in Delaware promoted by the two Party Establishments who served up a choice (Castle versus Coons) that was really no choice at all or they had voted (as they did in 2008) for non-ideological reasons (Biden was the favorite son; first black President; McCain was a moderate and not that different from Obama, etc...).
As Al B. will remember from Craig Shirley’s excellent book on the 1976 Reagan campaign, in the Texas primary, President Ford, having all the Establishment backing as well as the power of the Presidency, was expecting to split the 100 delegates with Reagan in the May 1, 1976 primary. Instead Reagan won all 96 districts and 100 delegates, winning most of the 24 Congressional districts by 2-1, an unprecedented, crushing defeat that took everyone by complete surprise. Ford had an excellent operation led by Jim Baker and Senator John Tower and Ford got his vote out. The problem was later the topic of a White House memo, which said:
“the people coming to vote...are unknown and have not been involved in the Republican political system before; they vote overwhelmingly for Reagan.”
“They’re swamping us,” said the state Executive Director. At one Waco precinct, 84 people had voted in the previous GOP primary whereas over 800 showed up in 1976.
Reagan’s Revolution, Page 196
I predict that the turnout in DE is going to completely overwhelm Coons and render these polls even more inaccurate than usual (Off year election polls, like primary polls, are generally way off because no one can correctly gauge turnout).
Who were these people who turned out in 1976 to vote for Reagan. They were Democrats (Carter went on to win Texas in 1976). A number of O’Donnell Voters will come from the ranks of those who voted for favorite son Joe Biden in 2008 because he was a favorite son candidate for VP. O’Donnell will likely draw nearly all of her 2008 vote to the polls this time. (It was 140,000, which was more than Biden received (135,000) in winning reelection in the last off year election (2002).
Post-election comparisons of results vs. polls is going to be very interesting this year, especially in places like DE.
Ann Coulter was on Lou Dobbs tonight. It could have been from Friday. I do not real like her anymore after she attacked birthers - she did say that Christine was very impressive in her debates. She said Coons su*ked.