How Big a Wave? Ask Cook and Rothenberg

Gerrymandered districts skew "wave" numbers so much as to make them neaningless as regards house results.

Actually, they tend to inflate the "wave" -- if it is a Republican one.

For example, one group that be counted upon to vote 90% Democrat is the blacks. But they are "packed" in districts that are 80% black -- so as to insure the election of black representatives. They may be 13% of the population, but they are a voting majority in only, say, 6-7% of the districts.

As a rule, gerrymandered districts are (intentionally) more heavily skewed to one party than the other. Leaving the "wave" to subsume all those other districts that are generally in the 45-55% voting range.

Roughly speaking 70% of Democrat voters are in 30% of the total districts.

This may have been true in the past. However, I believe this election will have more than a few races that will blindside everyone.

My guess: If the East Coast goes for the GOP in a big way, as expected, the rest of the country will have progressively lower liberal turnout in the late hours at the polls and that will increase our margin or even flip some races in the West. We just have to make sure that working Americans vote in the West even after good news from the East.

That said, here’s my guess at the House based off Real Clear Politics present numbers.

224 now viewed as leaning Rep. We won’t lose more than 4 of these, so 220 so far.

40 now viewed as Toss Ups. We will win about 30 of these because all of the momentum is toward Rep now and a lot of these will be Leaning Rep by Tuesday, so 220 + 30 = 250 so far.

26 now viewed as Leaning Dem. We will win about 8 of these as they will be Toss Ups by Tuesday and again, the momentum is toward Reps, so 258 so far.

24 now viewed as Likely Dem. We will win at least one of these, so 259 is the grand total (double check my math...it’s been lousy lately.)

So 259 minus the current 179 held gives a pick up of a nice round 80 seats. And I think it could be higher, not lower. (I wouldn’t be surprised to get 35 of the Toss-Ups and 10 of the Leaning Dems and 2 of the Likely Dems, and only lose 2 of the Leaning Reps instead of 4, for a total of 90 pick ups.)

Incidentally, to get the magic 111 seats for a veto-proof majority, we need all the currently leaning Rep, all the toss ups, and exactly all those listed as Leaning Dems: 224+40+26=290. (A week ago we needed 5 of the Likely Dems as well, but things have been shifting Rep day by day.)

Excellent analysis

Much better than the crappy pollster’s ...

Thanks.

I predict 100+

Roughly speaking 70% of Democrat voters are in 30% of the total districts.

So, we get 435 times 70% or 300 seats ???

Whoopeeeeeeeeeeeeee

( Geeeez, do you think that would teach Obama something

or would he still be just like he is now

or worse ???)

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These pollsters have been purposefully denying the fact that a massive wave is coming.

Now, we are finally seeing little cracks appearing, letting in the light.

They will still underestimate it.

Just look at the GOP primary races this year and note the huge turnouts, not seen since the 1930's.

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