Joe had 55,000 votes in the primary. I don’t believe any of the people who voted for him in the primary would leave him. He has to have some independent support.
They had 317,000 turnout in 2008. So it won’t be that high. In 2002 turnout was 230,000. So turnout should be around 250,000.
That means they are saying he is only getting around 70,000. That means they think of all the people that didn’t vote in the Republican primary. He gets 15,000 out of 140,000. That’s a little more than 10%, doubtful.
Who did the poll.
That easily drops Lisa to 35% and Joe gets a bump up to 39%.
It's possible for Lisa to get write-in votes. I don't see how it's possible for write-in voters to decide they want to stand in line to write her in when it's below freezing and it's snowing. It will be so much easier to just vote for Joe and the other Republicans on the ballot.