O'Donnell Heads for Home Stretch (Turnout,the Smear, and the Palin factor)

I have been following this race closely since before the Primary, which is probably why I am more bullish on Christine O'Donnell's prospects than many Freepers are. There are several reasons.

As nearly everyone who has ever watched an offyear election closely has observed, this election will be determined by turnout, that is: Who shows up to vote? The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the GOP turnout advantage this year will likely be the largest in over a century, much larger than in 1994. Gallup estimates not only that the electorate will be 55-40% GOP and GOP leaning independents, but that the number of self identifying conservatives will be 48%, the highest it has ever been, since the stats have been maintained. In the wave year of 1994, for example, it was only 40% conservative.

Turnout will only take you so far, though, says the skeptic. This is, after all, Delaware, among the most liberal states in the Union. Right? Well, not exactly right. Before 2000, Delaware had voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1952 (which meant twice for Eisenhower, twice for Nixon and twice for Reagan). In a word, Delaware follows the national trends very reliably. And we know where that trend is leading this year, don't we?

Well, Delaware is just another Connecticut, isn't it? No. Not really. The largest city in Delaware is Wilmington, with a population of 72,000. The next largest city is Dover with 35,000. It is really a conglomerate of small towns and rural areas. (Imagine, for example, how red Louisiana would be if you New Orleans were in an adjacent state). Connecticut, on the other hand has no less than seven cities larger than Wilmington. The two are not equivalent. Delaware is a small town, rural state. It should be fertile ground for Republicans. Why, then, have they had so little success in statewide,non-Presidential)elections of late? The answer is voter cynicism, directly traceable to:

Both wings. Until this year, for decades, the GOP and Democrat Party in Delaware have had a symbiotic relationship, typified by the infamous "Swap" of 1992 in which then-Congressman Tom Carper (D) and then-Governor Mike Castle arranged to clear the field for each other and exchange seats. This year, a similar arrangement had been worked out. 71 year old Mike Castle would once again exchange seats with a Democrat (and would by prearrangement defeat the sacrificial lamb, Chris Coons)moving up to he Senate for four years until 2014 when(by yet another arrangement) he would step aside for Beau Biden in yet another iteration of "the Swap". It was all set. Until Christine O'Donnell came along.

I have waxed on, in numerous previous posts, about Christine O'Donnell's skills and appeal as a candidate. That she is currently smoking the hapless Coons both in Facebook fans and in fund raising is well documented. The intensity of her support will mean that her supporters will turn out no matter what.

However, it did not occur to me until last night the profound, unprecedented (in modern times)effect that her candidacy is going to have on the COMPOSITION of the electorate. She mentioned on Hannity the number of people who will be voting this time who had never voted before (or hadn't voted in decades) because, in their estimation (if not in actual fact), the system was rigged. In defeating Mike Castle, she struck a mortal blow at the Establishment that is going to change the character of the Delaware electorate in 2010. The composition of the Delaware electorate will more closely resemble 1984 and 1988 (rather than a typical off year election) when Delawareans were actually voting FOR something, giving Ronald Reagan 59% and his 1988 stand-in Bush 55% of its vote, (both exceeding the national percentage) rather than AGAINST something or, in many cases, not voting at all.

I notice that the odious and vile smear of Christine O'Donnell, which has been roundly condemned even by NOW and Dave Weigel (and many others) is getting wide coverage in the press. I did a vanity post on Christine back on September 3, before her victory in the primary, decrying her vilification and comparing the smears against her (which dealt principally with her finances and allegations that she was paranoid) to those directed at Nikki Haley last June in South Carolina.

Little did I suspect that the Democrats would try a tactic as stupid as this. (Their internal polls must show Coons in free fall for them to pull this stunt). In South Carolina, as soon as it became apparent that the culprit was an ally of the sitting Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer (a credible candidate with the endorsement of Mike Huckabee), Bauer's support crumbled and he fell to 4th place on Election day, garnering only 12% of the vote to Haley's 49%. In the case of South Carolina, there was some doubt as to who was responsible for the smear, since there were three other candidates in the race besides Haley. In this case, if voters want to punish someone for this nasty smear of a really nice person, they only have one option: Chris Coons. He is going to take it in the shorts.

Sarah Palin will, I understand, be in Wilmington for the Tea Party Express rally on Sunday. As I have said repeatedly, The Governor's timing is impeccable. Her visit will undoubtedly energize the electorate which will show up to vote on Tuesday (and will give the lie to the notion that Palin is a drag on the GOP ticket anywhere this year)

Moreover, being a master political tactician, she is going to see this "Gawker smear" as an opportunity and use it. You can count on her to twist the rhetorical knife in the Democrats, the Establishment and the hapless Coons for this vile smear just as she did in the Nikki Haley episode. Maybe after all this is over with, Chris Coons can get together with Andre Bauer and commiserate about the experience of being Palin "road kill".

Great job. This is why I spend more time on Free Republic than ANY other site. Your reasoned analysis is MUCH better than the tripe I get on Fox News, let alone the lamestream media. Of course I’m pulling for Christine and there is an element of wanting her to win. Hoping Sarahcuda pulls her across the finish line as you have suggested. Thanks!

Mrs. Palin has been a one term Governor (which she didn't even finish) and part of a losing Presidential bid. The notion that she is a "master" political tactician is just hyperbole. And not needed on our side.

Totally disagree. Let's take the "losing Presidential bid" which is totally inaccurate. Sarah was not involved into the campaign until she was selected by McCain to be the VP. During the general campaign, she had little control over the situation. The McCain people ran the campaign, wrote her stump speeches and told her where to go.

Yes, she did not finish her term as governor but she had far more important things to do. Had she not resigned, she would not have had the opportunity to boost the Tea Party and rejuvenate the Republican Party, which has put them in position for Tuesday's blowout.

Thank you for posting this! I found it very inspirational...this is one of the funnest election cycles in my lifetime.

Hard to believe the anti-Palin idiots still have to chime in with their nonsense. They have taken their measure of Palin from the mainstream media...the same mainstream media that proclaimed Obama the new savior...you’d think they’d “get it.”

Just another, pro Romney, Pro Daniels liberal that is against O’Donnell winning.

Your posting history sucks.

"Moreover, being a master political tactician, she is going to see this "Gawker smear" as an opportunity and use it. You can count on her to twist the rhetorical knife in the Democrats, the Establishment and the hapless Coons for this vile smear just as she did in the Nikki Haley episode."

I took it in the context the writer gave it. There's no doubt Sarah's going to take tactical advantage of the smear against COD and twist the knife in the dems. No doubt at all.

And the writer gave context in comparing how Sarah handled the NH smear. And that was pretty masterful, IMO.

Regarding whether or not Sarah is a better tactician than Rove - arguing brings out emotion - so let's not argue and just stick with the facts -- Sarah endorsed Christine, Rove endorsed Castle (if you recall - when his guy lost, he showed extreme emotion).

the notion that many on our side would consider Palin a better tactician or strategist than Rove shows me how emotion filled our side is....just like the left.

Watch and learn, Grasshopper.

As far as political strategy, Rove and a whole lot of political hacks, left and RINO, have had their egos stomped upon by Palin over the past two years. And she hasn't had to resort to any dirty tricks -- just truth, justice, and the American way.

Thanks for your analysis and ability to keep your head while so many seem to be losing theirs.

I think you are right. Every indication is that Coons’ internals are in awful shape, and O’Donnell has at least got a fighting chance — actually, I think that this race was never a blowout, and the appearance of one was mostly the result of how difficult it is to poll accurately in this environment.

“Your posting history sucks.”

With brilliant arguments like that, you must win all your arguments.

I’m sure winning this one, when I post this.

“Just another, pro Romney, Pro Daniels liberal that is against O’Donnell winning.

Your posting history sucks.”

Then people know that it means that you are just a liberal pushing a liberal agenda, and that looking at your posting history reveals that you are just trolling this thread like you usually do, working to defeat the conservative GOP Senate candidate in Delaware, while approving of a Mitt Romney, and others of his ilk.

your emotions are effecting your point-of-view.

It is actually just the opposite - Those on here suggesting Palin is a better political strategist than Rove are the ones only using emotions. Those on here suggesting Palin is as qualified and talented as Reagan in 1980 are the ones only using emotions.

Those on here suggesting it is fine and normal for someone to do a reality show while wanting to be CinC at times like these are the ones only using emotion when understanding that reality.

It was brilliant how Rove was able to get so many losses in 2006 with such a solid economy. A master tactician.

Two words. Immigration Reform. That is what cost the GOP in 2006 (because our base, rightly or short-sighted stayed home). Furthermore it was an issue Rove did NOT agree with President GWB on...and told him so. But you serve at the pleasure of the POTUS.

Rove did just fine in 2000, 2002 and 2004. Show me Palin having a better record than that....She won a Governorship (and couldn't last) in a RED of an as RED State as one can get...

You claim that. Though she would have just been stuck with up holding her responsibilities that she took an oath to. But why allow silly things such as that to get in the way of bigger "agendas". I mean, there are already so few of those types in Washington, as is. Just another reason why I have apprehensions about her being CinC.

Your emotions are effecting your point-of-view.

It is actually just the opposite - Those on here suggesting Palin is a better political strategist than Rove are the ones only using emotions.

I'll repeat what I said.

A good Republican tactician or strategist doesn't trash a Republican candidate after the Republican candidate wins the primary.

Rove is trashing a Republican candidate after the primary.

It doesn't get plainer than that.

I'm surprised that you, our emotions policeman and our political strategy expert, missed this one.

She has been more valuable to the country, being part of the daily Obama resistance, than remaining as governor of Alaska.

It was the right move.

Even great tactician miss one here and there, and I agree Rove was wrong with ODonnell....But the notion that Palin is equal to Rove in terms of Political Strategy is just nonsense to anyone willing to be intellectually serious.

However in my field there is a saying.....Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, logistics, logistics.....That applies to the political board as well. Rove understands the logistics of the political map leaps and bounds beyond Palin.

There is nothing dishonorable about accepting a higher calling. Using your logic, Dwight Eisenhower should have turned down running the war in Europe so he could finish up his paper pushing duties at the War Plans Division in Washington. I mean, that's how ridiculous you sound...let's see, finish out my term as governor of Alaska or leading the charge to take power away from those who would impose socialism on America. What would YOU choose?

By the way, being elected to public office does not obligate you to finish the term. I think what Sarah did was honorable. At least she didn't go the Obama route - occupying the office while running for the next higher one. Obama spent his entire career doing that.

She has been more valuable to the country, being part of the daily Obama resistance, than remaining as governor of Alaska. It was the right move.

Sort of like the ends justify the means? That type of mindset one never wants as their CinC. Trust me.

lecturing folks about their so called emotions

If Christine wins here, it will be because of emotion. People here who will vote are those who are angry with the establishment. And they are fearful about the direction of the country. Delaware is a very small state. Many people here who are interested enough to vote, have taken the time to meet Christine at one of her many local events. Those that have met her, like her. They feel a genuine affection for her and the vicious, sexist, attacks have infuriated them. Yea, it's about emotion!

To me it feels just like it did the weekend before the primary. All of us are who busted ass then are doing so now. Only now there are many times more of us.

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