“You have to be kidding. This was a sure Republican seat until Sarah Palin started messing with it.”
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Ok... I challenge you to show me your proof that Mike Castle was ever a shoo-in to win this seat? (Sorry, but citing ridiculously premature polling data that was taken three months prior to the election won’t hold any water here.)
No need to count on polling data. We can just look at his record. He's been winning statewide races in Delaware for decades -- he's currently Delaware's sole US Representative, and had generally won those races with over 60% of the vote.
In 2008, he got 61.1% of the vote, in a state where Obama got 62% of the vote.
So, yes ... there's a very, very good chance he would have beaten Coons in the general election.