Despite money and ads, poll shows O'Donnell still badly trails Coons in Delaware Senate race

WGNTV-AP ^ | 10-27-2010 | Ben Evans

[smoothsailing]

Cassino said O'Donnell, a tea party favorite who spent years as a conservative evangelical commentator on cable television, would probably win in other states that have more social conservatives and a larger tea party presence. "But there just aren't enough in Delaware," he said.

Says alot about O'Donnell and even more about Delaware.

[Question Liberal Authority]

So then why are the Dems still pouring enormous resources into DE? I smell a rat.

A few possibilities:

First, Obama hasn't shown much aptitude toward the efficient use of resources.

Second, an Obama endorsement is worth approximately negative 10 points. You don't see Obama endorsing anyone where the race is tight. So far, Obama has been campaigning in places like Delaware, Washington DC, and Comedy Central.

Third, the Democrats have had success in recent elections by turning a single Republican into a punchline, and then painting the entire Republican party with the same brush. Before, it was Mark Foley and his text messages to pages and Larry Craig and his toe-tapping in the airport restroom. They also got away with painting Sarah Palin as an airhead and George W Bush as a frat boy.

Fourth, the GOP Establishment has abandoned O'Donnell in a snit, partially because if O'Donnell succeeds, she will show that you don't need the GOP Establishment to get elected. This is the same GOP Establishment that tells us we must hold our nose and vote for 'moderate' candidates just because they have an R next to their name (example: McCain vs Hayworth, Specter vs Toomey).

Fifth, O'Donnell might be a sacrificial lamb here. In 1994, the big focus of the Democrats and the media was Oliver North running for Senate in Virginia. If you watched talking head shows or late night comedians, you'd think that the only race in the country was Oliver North vs whats-his-face. When the election actually took place, Oliver North lost and dozens of other Republicans won.

[Old Badger]

Hear, hear! For all the trolls and Karl Rove, my belief is she's going to win and just watch all hell break loose when she does.

Should she not win, Karl Rove and his ilk need to be totally ignored and ostracized for the damage he is doing. I read a post earlier today that he's badmouthing Angle. He's exposing his true rhino nature.

[Gondring]

I generally vote for whoever will best represent my views.

What a paradoxical statement!

Let's see...Christine O'Donnell has one heck of a difficult time telling the truth. So I must conclude that your support means that your views include support of deceipt. ...but of course, if you value deception, then perhaps you were lying when you made that statement!

Oh, what fun.

[Gondring]

deceipt.

And I coined a new word during my editing! Look at that!

Oops.

[gardencatz]

What the elites think is irrelevant. What’s the point of electing a person with an R behind their name who’s going to vote like they have a D behind it. The idea is to elect conservatives who love their country. We’ve allowed the elites to run things for too long. I know it’s a rather silly concept in this day and age but I think most of us are realizing how important that whole messy “by the people” thing is. Christine O’Donnell doesn’t win (though I hope she does and Scott Brown was down pretty far before he won, too) then we try again next time. Pulling our country out of the progressive political elite (even ones with an R after their name) is going to take some time. We didn’t get here overnight and we won’t get rid of it in one election cycle. Pundits be damned! The people are engaged.

Cindie

[JaguarXKE]

Are people there really that stupid?

Perhaps the old New England houses still have a lot of lead paint that Delawarians at as Children?

[Maverick68]

I thought it was us Southerners that were supposed to be stupid....

[smoothsailing]

Taken on 10/6, released 10/28!

Where do you see that?

[kcvl]

polls showed that in the run-up to Delaware’s Sept 14 Republican Senate primary Christine O’Donnell trailed Congressman Mike Castle by 44% to 36%

Christine won: Sept. 14 Primary Results - 53% - 47%

[ncalburt]

Did Mom let you post today DU troll ?
Make sure Mommie has your Mike Moore doll ready on NOv 2 , you’re gonna need it!

[Gondring]

Look beyond this election. These are fundraising events designed to support the candidates they know will be in there to support them back in the upcoming years. They ar calculating...why support candidates that won’t be there to give back.

[9YearLurker]

Here’s their link to the full results, which open up as a pdf file:

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/winsome/

Scroll down to the question-by-question responses and you’ll see Oct 6 as the column heading for all the specific results.

[smoothsailing]

I’d really like to see the O’Donnell campaign internal polling. I suspect this is alot closer than we’re being led to believe.

[Gondring]

Parentheses should be added to the title of this thread: Taken on 10/6, released 10/28!

You just had a typo...
From the story:

The latest survey of 797 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 20-26 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

I'm spending LOTS of time in Delaware these days and I'm still waiting to find out where all these legions of Christine O'Donnell supporters are hiding out. I keep hearing about them from people in other parts of the country--self-proclaimed Delaware experts--but can't figure out why they hide so much from people actually talking with voters in the state itself.

[bereanway]

“The story would be almost the opposite for the Republicans had Castle been the nominee,” added Cassino. In a hypothetical match-up, Castle beats Coons by the
margin of 54%-33%.”

Yeah, they’ve got COD losing by 21 and Castle winning by 21. This poll is a fabrication and is designed to do one thing, convince Republicans that only dims can win running as pubbies. My guess is they come out with something just before the election stating the race has tightened considerably so as to not look too foolish.

[onona]

Perfectly explained. The problem, whether she’s elected or not, was brought into the harsh light of day.

[Gondring]

Karl Rove was too easy on her. He folded and considered her answers "acceptable"( about all the unanswered questions she never cleared up) just because people got upset that he was holding her accountable for her deceit.

I wonder if the FEC will go forward with charges against her if she loses. I'm still waiting to hear the explanation Matt Moran promised about all the shenanigans on her donation expenditures.

[9YearLurker]

Ah jeez, my apologies, they listed the Oct 6 comparisons at the end of the individual question tables—in comparison with the more recent results.

[The Citizen Soldier]

Worth repeating!

Polls showed that in the run-up to Delaware’s Sept 14 Republican Senate primary Christine O’Donnell trailed Congressman Mike Castle by 44% to 36%

Christine won: Sept. 14 Primary Results - 53% - 47%

Comments on this thread prove just how effective push polling is in depressing enthusiasm.