Sabato is cautious. He is not a right-wing ideologue. His numbers are the absolute minimum that we can expect.
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What interested me was that despite a relatively modest Republican gain in the house, he projects what is pretty much an optimum figure for the xenate. Senators are hard to take down.
One loss I think the GOP will have in CA gov. Not that Arnold was really a GOP, but I can’t see Meg Whitman pulling this off. I really thought she was a pretty good candidate for CA.
I do think Carly will squeek out a win... I hope.
From what I've seen, the numbers are reasonably straightforward for most of the Senate races. For the close ones, I suppose it will come down to whatever "October surprises" are sprung today or tomorrow.
I'll be expecting something of the sort here in Colorado, regarding Ken Buck. Michael Bennet has been going with the "too extreme" theme for weeks now, with good effect.
As an example, Bennet just came out with an ad featuring a Buck statement that he "opposes separation of church and state." Buck is now in full back-pedaling mode, of course. Again. After having spent several days back-pedaling from his unsolicited and unneccessary comments on homosexuality and same-sex marriage.
There's also a story about how Buck refused to prosecute a rape case, back in 2005... the decision may have been OK or shaky or wrong, depending on what side of the story you most believe. That story hasn't made big headway, but it's out there.
The problem is, Buck has made so many unguarded and ill-advised comments in his campaign, that there's a wealth of things to choose from. You have to figure that Bennet's campaign is saving the best for last. I guess we'll find out today or tomorrow...
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What interested me was that despite a relatively modest Republican gain in the house, he projects what is pretty much an optimum figure for the xenate. Senators are hard to take down.
My personal prediction 6 weeks ago and today remains 80 and 8. 100 and 10 would delight me. We'll see.
Jim