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Dynamics totally different.

In PA, a blue state, but not deep blue, you have a clear choice, Sestak is an unabashed liberal and Toomey is an unabashed conservative.

In VA, you have a moderate Dem masquerading as a conservative and a real conservative. They agree on pretty much everything.

CA is the deepest of blue. For a Republican, even a moderate one, to have a shot at a Dem. incumbent is news.

As long as the Republican keeps the race within the margin of error, they have a chance to win in a wave election.

In PA, a blue state, but not deep blue, you have a clear choice, Sestak is an unabashed liberal and Toomey is an unabashed conservative."

They say that Pa is a purple state, but I truly believe it's a conservative state, especially outside of Philly. This year, we have clear alternatives in Toomey and Sestak. If you look at Casey's upset over Santorum in 2006, you had a lot of factors going on there. There was the Democrat wave, anger over Santorum's support of Specter over Toomey in the Republican primary and Casey runs touting conservative things (i.e. pro life and pro gun).

Both of those issues have taken a hit during Casey's term in office so I think he's in serious trouble here in 2012. At the beginning of this decade we had a Republican governor and two Republican Senators. We've had the republicans in control of the state legislature here for quite a while. The only thing that the Dems can really pull on here is Philly and union support.