Posted on 10/26/2010 6:41:16 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data. The strategist looked at insider trading activity amongst the top ten companies that make up the Nasdaq such as Apple [AAPL 308.05 -0.79 (-0.26%) ], Google [GOOG 618.60 2.10 (+0.34%) ] and Amazon [AMZN 169.95 0.95 (+0.56%) ].
Then he analyzed the biggest members of the Retail HOLDRs ETF like Gap [GPS 19.68 0.32 (+1.65%) ], Target [TGT 53.14 -0.62 (-1.15%) ] and Costco [COST 63.68 -0.43 (-0.67%) ], as well as the top insiders in the semiconductor industry at companies such as Altera [ALTR 30.33 0.09 (+0.3%) ], Broadcom [BRCM 37.22 -0.29 (-0.77%) ] and Sandisk [SNDK 37.19 -0.22 (-0.59%) ].
The largest companies in three of the most important leading sectors of the market have seen their executives classified as insiders sell more than 120 million shares of stock over the last six months. Top executives at these very same companies bought just 38,000 shares over that same time period, making for an eye-popping sell to buy ratio of 3,177 to one. The grand total for the three sectors are “as awful as we have ever seen since we began doing this exercise years ago,” said Newman, who was ahead on such trends as the dangers of high-frequency trading and ETFs before the ‘Flash Crash’. “Clearly, insiders are seeing great value only in cash. Their actions speak volumes for the veracity for the current rally.”
But the overall market doesn’t seem to care. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent since its 2010 low hit on July 2nd on the back of strong earnings driven by cost-cutting and the hopes for even more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. The insider data “is good reason for considerable caution once the price action fades,” said Simon Baker, CEO of Baker Asset Management. Still “insiders normally buy early and sell early too. Longer term -- 12 months out -- it is more of a red flag.”
Newman isn’t alone in warning about insider selling. The latest report from Vickers Weekly Insider, a publication that makes investments based upon these transactions, shows that total insider sell transactions relative to purchases on the New York Stock Exchange are running at a ratio of more than four to one over the last eight weeks. The normal reading, because of options selling and other factors, is about 2 sales for every buy, according to Vickers. To be sure, many investors feel the heavy insider selling is just an anomaly based on other reasons.
“These are folks that have had to dip into their stocks for the first time in years, as their salaries have been cut and their bonuses, outside Wall Street, have been significantly curtailed,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist for TD Ameritrade. “ This may speak more to a cash flow problem, then a market belief.” Still Newman, who is also a favorite commentator of Barron’s columnist Alan Abelson, sees the insider selling as just the latest reason, along with the mortgage foreclosure mess and fully invested mutual fund managers with no fresh powder to put to work, to be cautious on the market. “At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect a significant correction,” said the newsletter editor.
Yup......this house of cards is about to tumble
How long have you been short this market?
I’ve only shorted FAZ recently and made quite a bit of money knowing the Fed would pump up the market. However, the laws of economics and physics simply show we’re going to have one awesome roller coaster ride down sooner or later. I took an incredible risk and did well. Now, I’m sitting here waiting. What are you doing?
I’m glad Obummer and Congress passed all those sweeping Wall St. regulations! s/
Errr, like uhhh, do you think the end of the ‘Bush’ tax cuts has anything to do with why these folks want to see the gains in 2010?
But keep it up, this wall of worry is giving me a shot at retirement!
Errr, like uhhh, do you think the end of the ‘Bush’ tax cuts has anything to do with why these folks want to see the gains in 2010?
But keep it up, this wall of worry is giving me a shot at retirement!
But Cramer said “buy!”?
The server is giving everyone a fault page after posting. Upon posting again, one has posted the same thing twice. I just back page a few times, refresh, and there’s my post!
Could be the taxes they pay now on capital gains will be less than after the new Jan 1 tax increases.
Well, I did short the market for about three days about a month ago, but aside from that, I’ve had long positions. Actually, my largest position since late 2008 has been in McDonalds, but it’s had quite a run and I’m not sure there’s much more to the upside. So, I’m considering getting out of the market for awhile, but I don’t feel comfortable shorting it.
Still waiting for your answer.
LOL. Patience is a virtue. :)
What is that old saying? The market can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
This country is about to collapse. The die is cast. You will need gold coin and a store house of food and water . The main thing is fire arms and ammo. This is no joke. They are coming to your home like “night of the living dead” . 41.6 Million parasites on welfare will kill you for a crum of bread. You won’t be able to find Harry Reid or Barny Fwank to hang.
Yeah, anybody with half a brain who has a capital gain is going to take it this year rather than "Hope" for a "Change" from a lame duck congress!!!!
bookmark
Tyler Durden had it nailed on Oct 5 with this entry:
http://www.zerohedge.com/node?page=33
It is approximately on page thiry four in the archives at the bottom.
Insider Selling To Buying: 2,341 To 1
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/05/2010 13:46 -0500
Sorry kids, we just report the news... as ugly as they may be. After last week saw an insider selling to buying ratio of 1,411 to 1, this week the ratio has nearly doubled, hitting a ridiculous 2,341 to 1. And while Wall Street’s liars and CNBC’s clowns will have you throw all your money into “leading” techs like Oracle and Google, insiders in these names sold a combined $200 million in stock in the last week alone (following Oracle insider sales of $223 million in the prior week). Insiders can. not. wait. to. get. out. fast. enough. This Fed-induced rally is nothing short of a godsend for each and every corporate executive. But yes, there may be value: there was insider buying in 2 (two) companies last week: General Dynamics and Best Buy, for a whopping total of $177,064. At the same time sales were a total of $414 million: so is anyone wondering why JPMorgan is reopening its gold vault... Anyone left holding the bag on this market when the FRBNY props are taken away, will be left with the same return as all those investors who entrusted their money with Madoff. Guaranteed.
Let’s see ... cash in now before the “Bush” tax cuts expire or wait and pay more?
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