O’Donnell: Shaking up the status quo (Local paper providing nice profile)

Cape Gazette ^ | Oct 25, 2010 | Rob Kunzig

[facedodge]

If months of fighting uphill have worn on Christine O’Donnell, it doesn’t show: the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate recently waded into a crowd of supporters at Fisherman’s Wharf in Lewes all smiles, bright and effervescent.

The people waiting for her are more than supporters – they’re fans, nearly every one clad in the powder-blue campaign T-shirt. They lean in close when they talk, speaking in hushed, reverent tones. One presents a copy of Peter Lillback’s “George Washington’s Sacred Fire,” a 1,200-page doorstop about Washington’s Christian faith.

O’Donnell is a political outsider, she said, and her supporters are outsiders, too, people disillusioned with party politics.

“What my campaign represents is putting political power back in the hands of the people,” she said. “And that’s why we’ve earned the support of grassroots folks all across the state – people outside of the political system.”

O’Donnell was catapulted to national fame after upsetting party favorite Mike Castle in the primary. Since then, support from the Delaware GOP has been tepid; Castle refuses to endorse her candidacy.

“The state party has chosen to sit this one out,” she said. “Same thing on the national level.” Which is not to say she’s hurting for financial support – as of Sept. 30, O’Donnell’s campaign had raised $4 million. O’Donnell said her supporters include a number of Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary.

While her populist message taps into the sentiment espoused by California-based political action committee Tea Party Express, she shied from calling herself a tea party candidate. Her constituency, she said, is anyone fed up with the status quo.

[truthfreedom]

The Tea Party Express polls were definitely right on the money for the primary. Some of those polls had some detail to them.

The most recent Tea Party Express “poll” didn’t even give the numbers at all. Just 6%. Not Coons 50 - Christine 44. Nope.
Just 6%. The kind of detail that really screams “reliability”.

Just release the poll already, if it’s real and not made up. They do have a real pollster - for the primary it was NSON.

This is it - this is all we know from the “recent” “poll” that Tea Party Express was talking about.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2613657/posts
New Poll Has Christine O’Donnell Within 6%
A brand new poll has Christine O’Donnell surging to within 6% of her Democrat challenger, Chris Coons.

That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the kind of detail we got for the tea party express polls for the primary
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/tea_party_expre_2.php

There were details there.

[truthfreedom]

Because obscure blogs cannot do 10 polls a week. They just can’t.

Obscure blogs can pretend to do 10 polls a week. And can make up the results.

I’m not saying that Christine isn’t down by 6. Heck, you could get any result you want if you ask the right people.

[PMAS]

Scott Brown was down 9 points with a week to go and I think he won by 4 or 5 points

[US Navy Vet]

So are you a polling or a modeling expert. Just where did you get your Operations Research degree from. What can you tell me about this poll’s internals? And would you know about interals?

[truthfreedom]

The last real poll was Rasmussen taken 10/14.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/de/delaware_senate_oadonnell_vs_coons-1670.html
Real Clear Politics poll average.

From what I’ve been able to gather, Christine has had a pretty good 12 days since then. Sure, she could be 5 points closer.
I also think that the pollsters haven’t been talking to enough Republicans and too many Democrats. So, I think she’s closer than Rasmussen says. But these “recent” “polls” are NOTHING.

Listen, if you want, I can make up a Christine poll by rejiggering some crosstabs from a different poll. probably would take a little while.

What result do you want? Do you want Christine up? Wow, look at that! 90% Republican support for Christine, 80% Democrat support for Coons. And Independents are breaking solidly for Christine - 60% / 40% among 10s. Support for Christine drops to 50/50 when less likely voters are included It’s the Truthfreedom/MUR (Made Up Research) poll. We’ve been finding that that the Democrats aren’t enthusiastic about voting, so we haven’t been getting as many 10’s among Democrats. We’re finding that the 10s are breaking out 40 Dem / 36 Republican. But among registered voters, the breakdown is 47 Dem / 29 Republican.

[truthfreedom]

Polls that were never taken don’t have internals.

I’m not saying the “poll” was bad. I’m saying there was no poll. I’m saying TCJ Research is just making stuff up.

See the recent analysis above from the fictional Truthfreedom/MUR poll, which “shows” that Christine is holding on to Republicans better than Coons is holding on to Democrats, that Independent 10s are breaking to Christine 60/40, and that there’s a huge enthusiasm gap benefitting Christine.

[techno]

Last week TCJ provided an explanation to their poll results which showed about 10 days ago COD down by 8 points to Coons.

Here is what they said after the poll they conducted on Oct 14-15:

“Our numbers, which showed Coons with a much smaller lead of 8 points, stem from a changing dynamic among voters. The polls showed MODERATES making a slight shift toward COD, while Coons still leads among that group. UNDECIDEDS were also down about 50% compared to our previous poll, with the majority of those disappearing UNDECIDEDS calling COD their candidate of choice. SUPPORT AMONG THE REPUBLICAN BASE IS ALSO UP FOR COD, WITH 82% NOW SAYING THEY BACK THE CANDIDATE FROM THEIR PARTY, UP FROM 73% IN THE LAST POLL. If COD continues to suck MODERATES away from Coons and manages to continue picking up the UNDECIDEDS this could be one of the big surprises of the 2010 Midterms.”

[truthfreedom]

And can you give a link to the Data?

That’s a piece of blather. I wrote a piece of blather as well.

Please stop pushing these BS polls.

[no dems]

I said this on another Thread but, it bears repeating here:

I am soooooo glad that Delaware does NOT have Early Voting for the following reasons:

1. It is not convenient for the lazy and uninformed to vote.

2. It makes it a whole heck of a lot more difficult to propagate voter fraud.

3. Libs / Dems think it will be a landslide for Coons and won’t go to the trouble to vote on Election Day. The old “he doesn’t need my vote” syndrome, which could, very well, spell V-I-C-T-O-R-Y for Christine O’Donnell.

[no dems]

Do you live in DE or will you be making phone calls from home?

[techno]

Both TCJ and the TPX found the same result (COD 6 points down) and they do not use the same pollster.

Also in an interview with David Brody, COD commented that her poll numbers have spiked recently and then when you put that together with the DuPont endorsement you have to believe that O’Donnell’s numbers have moved.

I still don’t think she can win but I don’t think she will lose as badly as many people think.

[truthfreedom]

Right. TCJ does not use a pollster. They just MAKE CRAP UP.

Tea Party Express used a pollster in September.

Which pollster did Tea Party Express use this time?

I think that Christine will win, but the most recent poll is Rasmussen, and that showed Christine by 11.

Stop pretending that TCJ is a real poll. It clearly isn’t.

[xzins]

Proof that the national and Delaware local republican apparatchiks are liberal rinos.

If Delaware ever wanted to elect a true outsider, then O'Donnell is it.

[libbylu]

Please keep me informed on how this race is going, and thanks for doing the good work.

[WashingtonSource]

Hooray!

[Pollster1]

Do you live in DE or will you be making phone calls from home?

Neither. I live reasonably close, so I'm driving in for the day as soon as I vote Tuesday morning.

[wardaddy]

unfortunately your memory is incorrect.

Scott Brown was ahead of Moakley by anywhere from 3 to 15 points one week ahead of the 1-20-2010 election

but you are close...he trailed a bit till around the 5th till the 11th of January then pulled ahead decisively and quickly triggered by the healthcare debate

i would love to see Christine and Beliot both do just that but it’s a long shot

for the record I have now given 550 to O’Donnell and 250 to Beliot now I advise all who can to help at ByeByeBarney.com or at Jim DeMint’s PAC

and I live in Marsha Blackburn’s district which encompasses rural TN and southern edge of Nashville proper

but like Master Ko at Tae Kwon Do says: Winners Never Quit...and nor must we

[wardaddy]

actually Brown surged as early as 2 weeks prior but the analogy is close

unfortunately we don’t have the healthcare bill being debated right now 24-7

we have talked more about Wicca and live in boyfriends

as if what Dems do never bears consequence

[no dems]

Bless you, bless you, bless you.

[no dems]

Don’t forget the endorsement from Gov. DuPont for Christine. That will carry some weight and possibly pull some Castle hold-outs over to our side. Thank God, DE does not have Early Voting.