Posted on 10/26/2010 7:05:22 AM PDT by lowtaxsmallgov
Loudonville, NY. Entering the final week of the ampaign, Republican Chris Gibson has reversed an early campaign deficit and turned it into a 51-42 percent lead over Democratic Representative Scott Murphy, who is seeking his first re-election, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Gibson has become much more known to voters over the last six weeks, with a positive three-to-two favorability rating. Murphy remains known to more voters, however, they are evenly divided between those who view him favorably and those who view him nfavorably.
“Chris Gibson has completely erased a 17-point deficit and now takes a strong nine-point lead into the final week of the campaign against incumbent Scott Murphy,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Republican voters have come home to Gibson. He had led by only 27 points and now leads by nearly 60 points among Republicans. He has also won over independents, who had previously sided with Murphy by a nearly two-to-one margin, and now give Gibson a seven-point lead.
Can they hear us coming yet!
Col Gibson in Congress. Yes!
This is very big.
Knew Scott was in big trouble when they announced Slick Willy was coming here to Saratoga on Nov.1.
Hopefully he’ll play to a half empty school auditorium!
Scott’s next door neighbor has a massive Gibson sign on his front lawn. LOL
This is HUUUUGE! If this environment is about the same throughout the state, the GOP will pick up at least 9 net House seats in NY:
NY-01
NY-04
NY-13
NY-19
NY-20
NY-23
NY-24
NY-25
NY-29
plus maybe
NY-02
NY-09
NY-22
NY-27
NY-04? Is that McCarthy’s seat? You sure about that?
Yes. Fran Becker is leading in the polls.
There may be hope for NY yet. I still don’t understand how a lightweight like ?Gillibrand? can win the Senate.
Do you really think it’s that much of a bellweather?
It’s an R+2 district. Bush carried it in 2004. In 2006, the incumbent Republican was ousted because of a domestic violence scandal. (He’s since serving time for repeatedly getting caught driving drunk with hookers on his lap.) The Dem who ousted him is now Senator and the only reason the Republicans didn’t win the special election for the seat is because Jim Tedisco is a slimy political chameleon who tried to be too cute by half about his opinion on the stimulus package.
This much movement in the past couple of weeks is something the experts may not pick up on by Nov. 2.
I look forward to seeing PJ’s poll driven projection this Sat.
This also means a lot of NY voters are going to split their tickets - Cuomo for Gov. and the Republican for House.
Murphy’s % are down to the basic levels of the Dem base, looks like. Gibson must be getting a huge share of the independents.
Great news! If Sienna poll has him up 9, it’s probably more like up 15.
Good news!
New York is a very late moving state, partly because the Primaries are so late, and partly because the media cost is outrageous.
I have been waiting for the tide that has rolled through Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, would it crest before it got to New York? Looks like it is still rolling.
The registration of active voters in NY20 is 41-27 for GOP, but that still leaves 32% independent. Yup, more indies than Democrats. It is the 2nd most indy district in the
state after NY01. Also, these are not your Plains/South Republicans here either, this was Rockefeller’s state.
But it’s breaking the right way.
Upstate, I know we owe you a call but you can imagine the poop totally hit the fan this morning!!!
No problem at all. If and when you get a chance. This is too cool!
Wow.
I agree huge... RCP has NY20 a toss-up, this poll would indicate GOP safe...
Simply put, NY is ludicrously overrepresented with Democrats in Congress. 26D-2R (1 vacant) doesn’t reflect the actual dynamics of the state (in fact, with that breakdown, that’s technically worse than the % we have of the MA legislature). There should be no fewer than 10 seats (at worst) that we should hold.
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